Aleppo, Syria’s second city, fell quickly to a surprise rebel attack that, in just four days, has drastically changed the largely frozen front lines of the 13 year-long Syrian conflict. In doing the rebels have exposed the vulnerability of an impoverished regime that was until now largely dependent on foreign allies who are currently distracted and severely tested by other conflicts.
By the weekend, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former al-Qaeda affiliate backed by Turkish rebel groups, was in control of a broad stretch of land across the provinces of Hama, Idlib and Aleppo, in the west and northwest of Syria. The area, also home to Kurdish forces, is refuge to up to five million people , more than half of them displaced from their homes elsewhere in Syria.
The Syrian civil war started 13 years ago when peaceful anti-government protests were met with brutal crackdowns, escalating into a conflict between forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad and rebels. Assad tipped the balance with the assistance of troops from Russia, Iran and the Lebanese Hizbullah, to the point where an uneasy stalemate has prevailed over the last four years.
But with Iran and Hizbullah driven on to the back foot by Israel’s war on Gaza and Lebanon, and Russia preoccupied by the war in Ukraine, HTS has seized the moment of weakness, seeing it as an opportunity to strike back.
Assad is scrambling to reinforce his defences but is ill- equipped to do so. Syria’s economy has been teetering on the brink of collapse for years, hampered by unpaid debts to the regime’s foreign patrons, western sanctions, and the ruling family’s endemic corruption. Assad’s depleted and under-equipped army has had to rely on forcibly conscripted young men. Reports say that when faced with a rapidly advancing and organised rebel offensive last week, many chose to flee rather than fight. Assad will not retake Aleppo simply by bombing it.
Internally, there are also reports that the once-dependable loyalty of Assad’s own Alawite minority community is being tested. And although Turkey, home to some three million refugees from Syria’s civil war, has been a supporter of HTS, it has been showing signs of wanting to reconcile with Damascus, to little avail. Syria’s continued bombardment of rebel-held areas has been driving refugees to flee towards Turkey, creating more problems for a frustrated Ankara.
Unable to rely on its international backers, economically bankrupt, and domestically unpopular, the Syrian regime can only stagger on for so long. Although he may yet be able to hold further rebel advances at bay, Assad must face up to the reality that diplomatic engagement and the long-delayed prospect of sharing power with the rebels represent his best hope of survival.