Large cuts in carbon emissions are needed as soon as possible to avoid the risk of an unliveable planet this century, the UN Environment Programme warns in its latest assessment of countries’ climate commitments and the extent to which they are decarbonising.
In its annual “emissions gap” report, the commentary is starker than usual, referring to a crunch time being reached. It is titled: “No more hot air … please!” - a likely reference to upcoming UN climate negotiations at Cop29 in Baku.
UNEP director Inger Andersen has called for unprecedented global mobilisation – starting before the next round of climate pledges by parties to the Paris Agreement . If not “the 1.5-degree goal will soon be dead and ‘well below 2-degrees’ will take its place in the intensive care unit.”
The report highlights the need for wealthy G20 countries, responsible for 77 per cent of global emissions in 2023, to take the lead, backed by the ramping-up of renewable energy, forest protection and other measures to steer off the current path towards “a catastrophic temperature rise of 3.1 degrees”. Already, with less than 1.5 degrees of global heating since the mid-19th century, extreme heatwaves with wildfires, storms, droughts and floods are ravaging communities in every continent.
Carbon-cutting commitments by countries for 2030 are not being met, and even if they were, the temperature rise would only be limited to a still-disastrous 2.6 to 2.8 degrees, the UNEP finds. It echoes the International Energy Agency’s 2024 world energy outlook which concluded that “the pathway to achieve the 1.5-degree warming limit remains narrow, but still achievable. But not with current policies”.
The UNEP says this requires emissions to fall by 7.5 per cent annually until 2035 – unlikely to be achieved in Ireland given current policies and delays in the roll-out of clean energy. Collectively, that adds up to the world halting emissions equivalent to those of the EU every year for a decade. Strengthened UN pledges, known as nationally determined contributions, are due to be set at Cop30 in Brazil next year. Without cuts of that order, backed by rapid action, the 1.5-degree goal would be gone, the UNEP says.
Andersen, however, advised against fixating only on the 1.5-degree target, because every fraction of a degree of global heating avoided would save lives, damage and costs.
The finance and technology to slash emissions exists but political courage is missing. Politicians and policymakers should heed its surprising estimate on investment needed to achieve net zero; $1- $2 trillion a year, just 1 per cent of the annual GDP of the global economy. Cop29 could provide early momentum and if it ensures adequate financial flows from rich countries to developing countries in pursuit of this critical global goal.