The killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar should surely have presented an opportunity to end the war in Gaza, as Israel achieved one of its key aims. Yet, there is no sign of this happening. Over the weekend, the UN special coordinator for the Middle East peace process, Tor Wennesland, said that “relentless Israeli strikes” in Gaza meant nowhere was safe. Condemning the attacks on civilians, he said that “the nightmare in Gaza in intensifying”.
Sinwar died last week in Rafah, barely a few miles from Khan Younis where he was born in 1962, like most Gazans, to Palestinian refugee parents. He was the architect of the brutal onslaught on Israel on October 7th last year, during which militants killed 1,200 people and took 250 hostages. He had successfully hidden his plans from Israel security authorities and politicians.
Although an icon to Hamas members, Sinwar was by no means universally loved by Gazans, many of whom blame him for their present plight.
His killing was a major strategic coup for Israel, the most tangible victory it has yet been able to claim in its year-long war, and a devastating blow to Hamas. Since January, it has also killed Saleh al-Arouri, a key liaison with Iran and Hizbullah in Lebanon, Muhammad Deif, the head of Hamas’s military wing, and Ismael Haniyeh, head of its political office in Qatar.
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Israel has also assassinated dozens of lesser Hamas leaders, though many have been replaced – the organisation has been damaged, but continues to operate. A critical question now is whether Hamas will fragment and the extent to which its leadership can maintain its discipline, not least among those holding the Israeli hostages.
As US president Joe Biden said, the killing of Sinwar should have been “an opportunity for a political settlement”, a chance for Israel to declare victory, especially against Hamas in Gaza, and negotiate a ceasefire and hostage-release. Israeli prime minister Benyamin Netanyahu hailed it as “the beginning of the day after Hamas” rule in Gaza, but insisted the fighting would not end until the 101 hostages had been freed.
And Israel is still not prepared to address the shape of a post-war Gaza administration or ultimately commit to a two-state solution. Netanyahu, meanwhile, who for personal political reasons is reportedly in no mood to end the war yet, feels vindicated by the killing of the Hamas leader.
Reports continue – as they have for some time – about diplomatic efforts to negotiate some kind of ceasefire, tied to the release of the hostages and to the holding of wider talks on ending the war.
But the brutal assaults on Gaza over the weekend offer little hope of any early diplomatic breakthrough. The opportunity presented by the killing of Sinwar is being allowed to slip past.