The political future of Ursula von der Leyen will be decided on Thursday when the EU Commission president discovers whether the European Parliament has approved her bid for a second term.
The outcome is far from assured. Von der Leyen, who needs the votes of 361 of the 720 MEPs, has the support of three parliamentary groups – her own European People’s Party, the Socialists and Renew Europe. But not all their representatives will support her. The four Fianna Fáil members of Renew have already signalled their intention to vote against her nomination. They are not alone, but it is not impossible, if the vote is tight, that those four votes could prove crucial.
Von der Leyen has been in discussions with the Greens, whose support could help her over the line, but the entire process remains fraught with uncertainty, not least because the vote is a secret ballot. The hard-right European Conservatives and Reformists, dominated by Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party, could yet have some role to play, although von der Leyen has been warned that any concessions to the right could imperil her existing coalition.
Does von der Leyen deserve another term? Opinions will differ, but few can dispute that she has been a consequential president, perhaps the most consequential since Jacques Delors. That has been largely due to unforeseen events. The challenges posed first by the global pandemic and then by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have seen the Commission move centre stage, taking a leadership role in the rollout of vaccines across member states and in clearing the way for the budgetary response to the crisis. War in Ukraine has seen an unprecedented level of EU co-operation in providing material support to Kyiv and co-ordinating a new security strategy in response to the military threat from the east.
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The answer to Henry Kissinger’s famous question, “who do I call if I want to call Europe?” may not yet have arrived, but is now a little closer after the last five years. That brings its own problems; von der Leyen’s unequivocal support for Israel’s assault on Gaza following the Hamas attack of October 7th may have been a natural consequence of her own political background as a German Christian Democrat, but has outraged many across the EU, including in Ireland.
Perhaps the greatest argument in von der Leyen’s favour is the uncertainty that would ensue should she be rejected. A new nominee would need to be agreed by EU governments and then put to the Parliament. The resulting delay could have a knock-on effect on the formation of the new Commission. With a Trump presidency looking increasingly likely, a vacuum at the heart Europe at a time of global instability is hardly desirable.