When the Dáil rose this week for the summer recess, most TDs will have headed for the doors in the expectation that this will be their last break before a general election is called. It is of course still possible that the Government will live up to its assurances that it will run its full term, but if that happens it will come as a surprise to many, not least some in its own ranks. And if the Dáil is dissolved in the autumn, any outstanding items on the legislative agenda will fall with it.
The Government did push its massive Planning Bill through with a guillotine vote last month, and the Seanad will continue sitting into next week to progress it. However, the Bill on hate crime and hate speech, now stalled for more than a year, looks increasingly unlikely to be passed, in its current form at least.
Meanwhile, a decision is imminent on a new funding model for RTÉ and public service media, which has been a source of public disagreement between members of the Cabinet. That is promised before the end of July.
It has been an eventful six months. Two referendums on family and carers were decisively rejected by voters, despite being supported by almost all the parties. That raised questions about a disconnect between the political establishment and the public mood. Since then, two of the three Government parties have changed their leaders.
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The results of June’s European and local elections gave some encouragement to Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, but the main Opposition party, Sinn Féin, will welcome the summer break as an opportunity to reflect, review and regroup in the wake of a precipitous slide in support. Mary Lou McDonald and her colleagues will hope they can once again conjure up the sort of electoral revival they achieved over the summer and autumn of 2019. In a changed political landscape, that may prove difficult.
The Irish Times/ Ipsos B&A Snapshot poll measures voters’ awareness each month of the most salient stories on the news agenda and their implications for the Government. Housing consistently remains at the top of that list, but immigration has been a recurring concern since the start of the year, reflecting ongoing controversies over accommodation for asylum seekers. There has been a noticeable hardening in both the rhetoric and policy positions of several parties on the issue, a trend which seems likely to continue.
The Government goes into this break with a Summer Economic Statement that unambiguously flags the generous pre-election Budget which lies ahead on its return. That always seemed politically inevitable, even if proves to be economically unwise. But with a new, energetic Taoiseach who is unlikely to slacken his pace over the holiday period, there is a palpable sense of accelerating velocity towards the general election.