It will take some time before final results are confirmed in the European, local and Limerick elections, with some twists and turns likely along the way. But the overall picture is already relatively clear. For the moment, at least, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have regained their positions as the State’s two largest political parties. Sinn Féin, until recently the most popular party in the country, has come in a distant third.
Some caveats are required. The low turnout and the added advantage of incumbency in local elections contributed to Sinn Féin’s poor performance this weekend. These will not necessarily be replicated at a general election, when it comes. But the party will nonetheless need to reconsider its candidate strategy. More fundamentally, as Mary Lou McDonald has acknowledged, it will have to reflect and regroup.
Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, neck and neck in the contest to be the largest party at local level, will be generally satisfied with the outcome. Two months after Simon Harris became leader of his party, he has led it to a solid result, particularly in Dublin, that will bolster confidence about Fine Gael’s prospects in the general election.
Micheál Martin will point out that Fianna Fáil has substantially outperformed its opinion poll ratings. That is true, although the party will be less happy with its performance in the capital. Despite painful losses, the Greens have proved more resilient than some predicted. Tallies also report an increased level of transfers between all three Government parties, which could prove significant.
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The surge in support for independent candidates remains difficult to parse, ranging as it does across the political spectrum. It encompasses the hyper-localism of the Healy-Raes in Kerry and the Lowry team in Tipperary, as well the single issue campaign of 100% Redress in Donegal. What can be said is that it represents a continuing dissatisfaction among a portion of the electorate with the options offered by the main parties.
This was the first election in which migration figured as a major issue, and a small but not insignificant number of candidates with views ranging from migration scepticism to outright xenophobia had some success, often in areas which have seen controversy over refugee accommodation. That is an unwelcome new element in Irish politics which reflects trends seen across Europe in elections this weekend.
Attention is already turning to the implicationsof these results for both Government and opposition as they gear up for a general election that must be held by March 2025 at the latest. Despite their protestations, it would be astonishing if the Government parties were not seriously considering an earlier election which, on the basis of this weekend’s figures, offers them the tantalising possibility of another term in office.