Donald Trump’s comfortable winning margin of 11 per cent in the New Hampshire Republican primary is enough for him to be spoken of as the unchallengeable nominee for president. But not enough, to his chagrin, to force the withdrawal of the surviving challenger, his former UN ambassador and governor of South Carolina, Nikki Haley.
Haley’s insistence yesterday that “this race is far from over” was enough to prompt a typical Trump rant, and a plausible warning that he would yet trounce her on her home patch in the upcoming South Carolina poll, where she is well adrift among Republicans. At his side on the victory podium was his former primary rival, senator Tim Scott, appointed by her to the Senate. He has now joined the other primary scalps on Trump’s belt– governor Ron DeSantis and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, in enthusiastically endorsing the former president.
Yet, significantly, their endorsements did not bring all their voter base to the Trump banner, reflecting the reality that although he has a tight and comfortable command of the party, there remains a significant moderate vote. Combined with many independent middle ground voters who clearly were energised to vote in the Republican primary, some may yet be persuaded to vote for president Biden.
Ramaswamy lashed out at Haley on social media, portraying her as the last hope of the old Republican leadership. “The fact that Nikki is pressing ahead exposes the ugly underbelly of this race: there’s no way she can defeat Trump through the front door, so her donor puppet masters are propping her up long enough while plotting to eliminate Trump from the ballot,” he said.
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And the court challenges to Trump do indeed seem to be the main obstacles on his road to confronting Biden. The supreme court will test both his claim to presidential immunity as he faces 91 charges over attempts to overturn the 2020 election, and attempts by many states to remove his name from the ballot paper for supporting “insurrection” on January 6th.
While he would appear more likely to survive the latter, keeping his name on the ballot paper, the court, however sympathetic, may well baulk at his insistence that a president to be effective must be protected from all litigation. And while court appearances would seem to be grist to the ex-president’s mill with his base, Trump could yet face a voter backlash from the litany of cases against him happening as his campaign against Biden is getting under way. They will certainly make mobilisation of the Democratic base easier.
For some months Trump has been marginally ahead of Biden in the polls although head to head battle has yet to be engaged. The prospect of a second Trump term became more likely yesterday, but remains far from certain.