This year will see elections in countries making up half of the world’s population, among them the United States, Russia, India, Pakistan and South Africa.
But the first election of the year, in Taiwan on January 13th, could be among the most consequential for the world as well as for the island’s 26 million people. The leading candidates to succeed President Tsai Ing-wen have defined the election as a decision about war and peace, an assessment that is shared by the Chinese Communist Party in Beijing.
Voters will elect a new parliament as well as their next president and the campaign has seen candidates clash over housing policy and accusations of cronyism. In this respect, the election is like those in any other free parliamentary democracy of the kind Taiwan has become in the decades since the end of martial law in 1987.
The defining issue is, however, Taiwan’s relationship with mainland China and how best to maintain the island’s self-governing status without risking war. Frontrunner Lai Ching-te from Tsai’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has promised to continue to get closer to the US while increasing Taiwan’s military capacity.
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Hou You-ih from the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) favours warmer relations with Beijing, although he rejects the idea of unification with the mainland under the policy of One Country, Two Systems. He claims that Lai’s flirtation with the idea of independence for Taiwan is reckless and a threat to the status quo which the overwhelming majority of Taiwanese want to maintain.
Ko Wen-je from the smaller Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) accuses the two big parties of bickering for 30 years over something they can do nothing about. He says that neither independence nor unification are viable options and that the focus should be on making the status quo work better.
Beijing has made clear its preference for a change of government and has signalled through trade sanctions that a victory for Lai could hurt Taiwan’s economy. In 2022 and 2023, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted military exercises around Taiwan, demonstrating what a blockade of the island might look like.
Half of the world’s freight vessels pass through the Taiwan Strait, making the island’s future a matter of geopolitical interest. For politicians in both parties on Capitol Hill and a growing number in Europe, Taiwan has also become a proxy for a broader great power contest with China.
Regardless of the outcome, the election is a demonstration of the liberal democratic system to which Taiwan’s people have become more attached as they watch the erosion of Hong Kong’s freedoms. Instead of sabre-rattling, Beijing should take note of that reality and its implications for the next steps it should take where both Hong Kong and Taiwan are concerned.