The attempted coup finished as abruptly as it started, but its significance should not be underestimated. Yevgeny Prigozhin, once a close ally of Russian president Vladimir Putin and founder of the mercenary group Wagner, has exposed deep flaws at the heart of Putin’s regime, cast doubt on the sustainability of the Ukraine invasion, and even raised some questions about the stability of the Russian state.
Like Donald Trump on the storming of the Capitol, Prigozhin was anxious to characterise the mutiny as less than a coup. “I ask everyone to get out of our way. Those who try to stop us, we will consider them a threat and destroy them immediately,” he had tweeted. On Monday, claiming wide public support, he repeated that it had not been his intention to overthrow the regime. But a usurpation of state power, a march on the capital, confronting state forces with arms, that is an attempted coup in anyone’s language.
A keen student of Russian history, Putin will recall with trepidation the dramatic collapse of army morale in February 1917 in the trenches of the first World War. Soldiers simply would not fight, and had similar grievances to Russian forces today: incompetent, indifferent officers and a high command willing to throw raw recruits into killing fields, supply chaos and brutal discipline.
Yet, unlike 1917, Russian society is not at a tipping point. The balance of forces still favour Putin. Although Russian troops in Ukraine did not join the rebellion, they did not resist it, allowing the rebels to take Rostov without a fight and push to within 200km of Moscow. As they retreated from Rostov they were cheered by citizens.
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That Prigozhin gave up perhaps reflects a realisation of his ultimately unwinnable hand, but also the fact that he had no idea what to do when he got to Moscow. Initial reports that he would not face charges were denied in Moscow yesterday, and he will hardly feel safe in Belarus, where he is now reportedly in exile.
Putin’s immediate challenge is to restore military authority, perhaps removing Prigozhin’s ostensible targets – Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, commander of Russia’s invasion force – and then incorporating what he can of Wagner front line troops into the regular army. That process started before the coup attempt and may have been one trigger for Prigozhin’s move.
Those involved in the march on Moscow will necessarily be stood down, but without charge – a sign of weakness. Mutiny unpunished is an invitation to further indiscipline.
This is not the end of the story. As Sergei Markov, a former Putin adviser, wrote on Telegram: “Yes, the putsch didn’t succeed, but putsches have fundamental reasons behind them. And if those reasons remain, then the putsch might happen again. And it could be successful.”