The public remains strongly in favour of Ireland’s current policy of military neutrality but wants to see our ability to defend our airspace and territorial waters significantly enhanced by increased military spending. Those are the findings in today’s final instalment of the Irish Times/Ipsos opinion poll, published ahead of the opening of the Government’s consultative forums on defence and security policy next week. The forums have attracted criticism from some pro-neutrality campaigners but they offer a useful opportunity for a constructive discussion on Ireland’s security responsibilities to ourselves and to others in a world that has been dramatically changed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Some neutrality campaigners have warned repeatedly but inaccurately about the demise of neutrality and the dangers of participation in international and European defence co-operation. First our entry to the EEC was to have sounded the death-knell for neutrality. Then it was the Single European Act. Then the Nice Treaty. Then the Lisbon Treaty. The truth is that Ireland’s neutrality has always been flexible, shifting in response to international events and domestic concerns. It is timely to discuss these questions again in the light of growing European defence co-operation in response to Russia’s aggression.
Today’s poll offers some insight on where the public is on these questions. It is clear that there is a large majority in favour of retaining neutrality. Even though today’s numbers show some softening of that support since last year, that majority opinion is clear and must be recognised. Among those who favour a change in the policy, there is overwhelming support to take part in closer EU defence co-operation, and majority support for joining Nato. The latter prospect is a remote one.
But a clear majority of all voters also want to see Ireland significantly increase its military capacity to defend our airspace and territorial waters. At present, we have little ability to defend our waters, and none worth speaking of to defend our airspace, relying instead on the Royal Air Force to do that job for us when necessary. It is a measure of how little attention has been paid to defence and security matters that while 40 per cent of people are happy with this arrangement with the RAF (12 per cent were unhappy), a third of all voters are completely unaware of it.
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Voters also believe in co-operation with other countries to defend vital undersea internet cables, a growing cause of concern in Europe and the US. A majority of voters who expressed a view said that Ireland “should seek help from other countries” to protect the cables.
We are entering a period when defence and security matters will become much more central to government business and to political debate. There is certainly much to talk about – and also much to do.