The latest Irish Times/Ipsos poll is a reality check for Sinn Féin but will cause profound concern in Fine Gael. Despite a booming economy and record employment, the main government party is close to its lowest ever poll rating.
With an election due in the next 18 months, the outlook for the party looks grim.
Fine Gael is now on 18 per cent and while it had dipped that low a year ago it bounced back in February and there was a widespread assumption that once Leo Varadkar was back in the Taoiseach’s office the upward trend would continue. Instead the party has slumped back to a dangerously low standing.
One striking finding is that among voters aged 65 or over Fine Gael is now well behind Fianna Fáil and even trails Sinn Féin. Something has prompted a significant number of older voters to abandon the party and that is likely to fuel the reported mood of unhappiness in the ranks about the leadership.
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While Sinn Féin remains the strongest party with 31 per cent of the vote, the drop of four points since the last poll indicates that a portion of its support could be soft and could slip to other Opposition parties if they are able to develop a coherent message and capitalise on the mood for change among younger voters. The figures may suggest that after years of sustained growth in its support, Sinn Féin has reached a plateau.
The party’s support is fairly evenly spread across the country and while it is by far the most popular among the 18 to 24 year-olds it has significant support among all age groups, including the over 65s. Another plus for Sinn Féin is that Mary Lou McDonald marginally edges out Micheál Martin to head the satisfaction ratings.
The increase of three points in Fianna Fáil support will come as a welcome boost for Martin. If Fianna Fáil can continue to get over 20 per cent in the run-up to the next election it will be able to go into the campaign in a confident mood. Considering how often the party has been written off over the past decade, it is proving very resilient.
More evidence of that is that Martin’s satisfaction rating is almost neck-and-neck with McDonald’s in spite of his departure from the Taoiseach’s office. In fact he is almost as popular among Fine Gael supporters as Varadkar.
There has been little change in support for the Greens, Labour and Independents. The most interesting finding when it comes to the smaller parties
is the gain of three points by the Social Democrats, who have more than doubled their support since the last poll. The party is particularly strong among the 25 to 34 year-olds and is polling ahead of the Greens and Labour in Dublin.
It appears that the new leader, Holly Cairns, is appealing to a segment of younger voters who may have been considering voting for Sinn Féin.