Polls and pundits predicting a close-run election were wildly out. Greece’s outgoing prime minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, of New Democracy romped home with 41 per cent of the vote, a colossal lead over the combined votes of the two major opposition left parties. Although no ruling party in Greece has increased its share of the vote in an election for more than 40 years, it was not enough, however, to return him to government on his own.
His inability to form a majority – Mitsotakis has repeatedly said coalition would be destabilising -– will allow him the chance of a second run at the polls on June 25th, with the distinct advantage of a new 50-seat bonus for the leading party after the first election. The reform of the electoral system to facilitate the formation of majority government had been pushed through the last session of parliament by New Democracy. It disincentivises dialogue, compromise and coalition-building.
Mitsotakis will view a second run with relish. In theory he could do a deal with the reviving centre-left Pasok (11 per cent), but, scenting the prospect of further gains against left wing Syriza, which saw its vote halve to 20 per cent, Pasok is also enthusiastic about a second round. The result must raise questions about the future of the Syriza leader, former prime minister Alexis Sipras, who led Greece’s fight against EU austerity during the euro zone debt crisis
Markets are overjoyed. Mitsotakis won big partly because of signs of economic progress, and partly because voters, scarred by the euro zone crisis, crave stability. It was no mean feat with poverty still rampant and GNP a fifth down on 2008. The election also followed a major wiretapping scandal that implicated his chief of staff, and widespread horror at chronic rail underinvestment that resulted in the catastrophic rail accident in February.
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Only last week the government was further embarrassed by press evidence of “pushbacks” at sea of refugees to Turkey, a policy much denied but now blatantly exposed. Mitsotakis has been lucky.