French politics will be dominated in coming months by a renewed battle over changes to the country’s state pension scheme proposed by President Macron’s government. It wants to extend the retiring age – at which people qualify for the State pension – from 62 to 64 by 2030 and has made several concessions this time on the previously proposed 65 years. The issue pits Macron’s reformist credentials against fierce resistance from trade unions and opposition parties as living costs increase sharply.
Macron has consistently demanded the change since he was first elected in 2017 and proposed it again last year, probably losing his parliamentary majority as a result. He postponed his previous pensions campaign during the Covid crisis in 2020. Success now would bring France more into line with Germany and address his concern with French competitiveness and budgetary sustainability.That would strengthen his domestic and international reputation for focused reform during the rest of his term.
Failure to deliver an effective pension package this year would similarly downsize that reputation. So it is a risky political enterprise for Macron. He has secured support from the right-wing Les Républicains by offering a higher pension rate of ¤1,200 compared with the current ¤900 and allowing those who start working younger in more onerous jobs to retire earlier than the average 43 years of work now proposed. He wants to wrap the issue up fast, but trade unions, left parties and the far-right National Rally party led by Marine Le Pen see opportunities to inflict a strategic defeat on him.
Their hoped-for mobilisation of popular support on the scale of the Yellow Vests movement in 2018 on living costs or the 1995 strikes against welfare cuts will be an uphill struggle against Macron’s ability to compromise.
In an uncertain economic and political climate for Europe, he needs to show he is serious on the issue and can rally public support for reform. If he succeeds he can be a more authoritative French leader over the next four years.