Despite reports of private differences over the shape of an acceptable Ukraine peace deal with Russia, G7 leaders at their summit in Bavaria made an unequivocal, welcome commitment to Kyiv that they would continue to provide financial, humanitarian and military support for Ukraine “for as long as it takes”. The pledge came hard on the heels of the latest Russia atrocity, a deadly missile attack on a busy shopping centre in Kremenchuk, central Ukraine, and a warning from President Volodymyr Zelenskiy that a “difficult” winter war looms.
Importantly, the G7, once derided as an impotent talking shop, provided more than verbal solidarity. The group of major democracies announced an additional €28 billion in budgetary aid, as the US and Germany promised also to deliver an air defence system. And the leaders backed a ban on Russian gold exports, new sanctions to curb Moscow’s import of technology for its arms industry, and a plan to explore capping Russian oil prices in a bid both to prevent Russia from profiting from its “war of aggression” and to curb inflationary pressures.
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The latter represents a complex, novel attempt by the seven to leverage their collective buying power in the international oil markets. By limiting the availability of European services, crucially insurance, for Russian oil shipments to contracts which observe settled maximum price ceilings it is hoped to squeeze the ability of Russia to avail of the price inflation it has caused. French proposals to curb energy inflation by persuading Opec oil-producers substantially to up production were not seen as realistic.
The G7 leaders also agreed with colleagues from five guest countries invited to the summit a series of deals designed to help developing economies clean up energy systems and reduce dependence on fossil fuels. The so-called Just Energy Transition Partnerships are with South Africa, Indonesia, India, Senegal and Vietnam.
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Moving to Madrid on Tuesday for a Nato summit, the leaders joined fellow member states in continuing to reinforce collective international responses to Russian aggression. They backed a radical rethinking of Nato’s eastern flank defence strategy that secretary general Jens Stoltenberg called “the biggest overhaul of our collective deterrence and defence since the cold war”. It will increase forces on high alert by more than sevenfold to 300,000, ready for rapid deployment to Baltic states.
Current doctrine accepts that Baltic states would be unable to resist a Russian invasion and, in the words of the Estonian prime minister, would be “wiped off the map” before Nato attempted a counter-attack to liberate them after 180 days. The summit agreed to a strategy for immediate response aimed at quickly halting a Russian attack.