To date about a quarter of Ukraine's 40 million people have become refugees. Most are internally displaced, while the UN estimates that 3.9 million have crossed the country's borders, predominantly into the EU. More than two million have moved into Poland, while impoverished Moldova has seen its population rise by close to 15 per cent. The biblical scale of the displacement, mainly of women, the elderly and children, has seen more than half the country's children leave their homes. Although daily arrivals in the EU have slowed from a peak 200,000 to 40,000 now, officials warn this may increase again if the fighting intensifies, and some eight to 10 million may ultimately arrive in the EU.
The union's generous response – an open door to refugees, with funding and logistical, humanitarian support flowing to the frontline states from governments and individuals – is heartwarming testimony to the extraordinary popular wave of sympathy for the Ukrainian people. In Ireland that welcome has seen 23,000 offers of accommodation from the public through the Red Cross. By Saturday some 13,200 refugees had arrived and while many are staying with family and friends, 7,183 have so far needed help with accommodation. The Government, which says it will set no limit to the intake, has predicted that up to 200,000 Ukrainians could arrive here.
The EU has granted “temporary protection”, a special status giving refugees the right to residence, housing, education and healthcare, and the right to work for at least a year. The cost is likely to be astronomical, in Ireland’s case some €1.7 billion this year and a likely €2.8 billion next year. That will easily swallow up any balance in the €4 billion Covid contingency fund for the year.
Poland could spend up to €24 billion this year hosting refugees, EU leaders were told at last week’s summit, and there will have to be a major effort by other member states not only to help disperse the refugees but to share the financial burden to frontline states of those who stay. It is hoped that the common European effort to support Poland this time may cause Warsaw to rethink its previous hostility to collective EU migration burden-sharing.
Many of the refugees will prefer to remain closer to their homes in the hope that the war will not last and they can return soon. But member states must be prepared for the possibility that fighting may drag on and return may not be possible for some time. And so measures to provide protection and alleviate immediate distress must be matched by concerted attempts to integrate our latest arrivals into society.
In that respect the right to work, access welfare, and live in the community is crucial. Ireland’s efforts to avoid another version of the discredited direct provision system are welcome.