The announcement of the so-called Aukus security pact between the United States, Australia and the United Kingdom – and with it Australia's cancellation of a submarine mega-contract with France – has set off an extraordinary transatlantic row that could do lasting damage to relations between Europe and the US. After France recalled its ambassadors to Washington and Canberra over the surprise announcement, defence minister Jean-Yves Le Drian accused Australia of "lies and duplicity" and said Paris viewed the situation as a "serious crisis". The French ambassador was pointedly left in London – a signal, as Le Drian said, that France viewed the involvement of the UK ("the fifth wheel on the cart") merely as an example of the country's "usual opportunism".
The delay in the upgrading of Australia's submarine defences combined with the turmoil in the western alliance will delight Beijing
It is tempting to see the episode as a fleeting moment of diplomatic awkwardness caused by French pique at the loss of a massive €60 billion contract. But that is to misunderstand the strategic value France attached to the deal in a region, the Indo-Pacific, where it has around 7,000 military personnel and over 1.5 million citizens. The humiliating ease with which Washington lied to it the past six months as it negotiated with Australia, as France sees it, amounts to a serious breach of trust. It raises serious questions about the Biden administration's commitment to its allies – a commitment the US president made the theme of his address at the UN General Assembly yesterday. And it is difficult not to conclude that in the short-term at least the biggest winner is the country whose ambitions the defence deal was designed to thwart: China.
Having cancelled its order of 12 diesel-fuelled submarines from France in favour of a strikingly vague plan to purchase up to eight nuclear-powered ones from the US, Australia will now be unable to renew its fleet for perhaps two decades. It could also feel France's wrath elsewhere, should Paris move to stall the EU's ongoing talks with Australia over a trade deal. The rift could spill over into Nato and also impede Franco-British cooperation on defence, a rare example of an area where Brexit had done minimal damage. The delay in the upgrading of Australia's submarine defences combined with the turmoil in the western alliance will delight Beijing.
The Biden administration has identified the rise of China as its principal strategic threat. Containing China is its most important foreign policy goal, and even before the submarine debacle the US's allies worried that all other priorities were subordinated to that imperative. Coming just weeks after the botched unilateral withdrawal from Afghanistan, a second major diplomatic breach with a key ally will prompt America's friends to wonder whether Biden's professed belief in consensus-building and renewal of traditional alliances is more rhetorical than real.