It's been some week for Joe Biden. Only a matter of days ago pundits were writing the 77-year-old off. But stonking victories in Democratic primaries last week in Arkansas, Oklahoma, and particularly in South Carolina, then in 10 of 14 states voting on Super Tuesday, along with the endorsements of retiring "moderate" candidates Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar and Michael Bloomberg, have thrust him to the front of what is now a two-horse race for the Democratic presidential nomination.
"Electability" – as defined by the party's centrists and media pundits – has redefined the contest much as it came to dominate debate in Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party during the British general election. In states like Virginia only the young, particularly Hispanic youth, are clinging consistently to the self-declared socialist Bernie Sanders (78), who had been leading the field with his talk of "revolution". African-American voters, a key Obama constituency, are opting for the latter's vice-president.
What the country does not need is another Trump on the left, the centrists declare. And the characterisation is sticking, although Sanders's social democratic vision would sit comfortably with most social democratic parties in Europe. No matter, we are told, just wait until the Trump machine gets going on the "socialist". America now needs a breather, some down time, after an excess of ideological zeal. Biden is just that, they say.
Polls, notably the Real Clear Politics average, put Biden microscopically ahead of Sanders (49.7 to 49.3 per cent) in a head-to-head with Trump (44 per cent). For the time being. But gambling that Biden will increase that margin takes no account of the young idealists, many of whom remain loyal to Sanders and are saying they can't see themselves voting for any other Democratic candidate.Last time out, in 2016, their abstentions hurt Hillary Clinton.
Biden also has some baggage. When addressing audiences, he suffers from what one writer has called "meandering verbosity". His son Hunter's business dealings in Ukraine remain an effective leitmotif of Trump campaign tweeting. And his age makes talk of selecting a younger and vigorous vice-presidential running mate all the more important. But, more positively, polls also show that the Obama legacy of gentle reform remains popular and unthreatening to Republican swing voters.
Sanders now needs about 57 per cent of the remaining delegates to claim a Democratic majority and the nomination. That looks like a long shot. And with Elizabeth Warren (70) now having dropped out, the field for the ultimate contest with Trump (73) has become all male, all white and all septuagenarian – diversity sacrificed on the altar of beating one man.