Were it not for the emergence of the Omicron variant, the country would be faring relatively well in its efforts to contain the current surge in Covid-19 infections.
Hospital admissions are down 40 per cent from the peak of just a few weeks ago, case numbers have stabilised and the flow of Covid patients into intensive care units is close to the most optimistic scenario envisaged by the Government’s public health advisers in the autumn.
Yet, with Christmas approaching, the national mood is one not of relief at the containment of the Delta surge but of apprehension over the potential impact of the soon-to-be-dominant Omicron strain.
It is still unclear how Omicron will behave. We know it is more transmissible than Delta. If the experience of South Africa, Denmark and Britain is any guide, case numbers will soon take off and may hit a plateau only when the State reaches its testing capacity.
South Africa, where Omicron was first reported, is so far seeing fewer hospital admissions than in previous waves, but it is still not established whether that is due to the variant producing milder disease or whether other factors – high infection-acquired immunity, a young population or vaccination – are merely creating that impression.
Against that uncertainty, the Government and its health advisers have no real choice but to err on the side of caution. To place a hopeful bet on Omicron turning out to be manageable – and to lose that bet – would be to make a bad situation very much worse, with terrible consequences for individuals and for society. The political price to be paid would be considerable.
New restrictions also come at a cost, of course – publicans and restaurateurs will be left reeling by the earlier closing times announced yesterday – but if the two policy priorities are protecting the health service and ensuring schools can reopen in January, then some further curtailment of relatively high-risk social activity was inevitable.
Almost two years into the pandemic, the Government is asking a lot of the public. Even if people agree with the rationale for new measures – a majority of voters would be hostile to school closures but are willing to accept the more limited type of restrictions announced yesterday, according to an Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI opinion poll last week – the general sense of weariness is unmistakable.
Having now asked the public to do more, the Government must do the same. That means making good on its pledges to accelerate the booster vaccine campaign, expand test-and-trace infrastructure and quickly invest more in ventilation so that schools can reopen safely in January. It also means ensuring financial support for those who are now going to lose their jobs or see their incomes slashed just days before Christmas.