On her first anniversary as Sinn Féin leader, Mary Lou McDonald can look back on a year of mixed achievement. Her robust performances in the Dáil, attacking Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and his Ministers in trenchant terms at every opportunity, has become the hallmark of her political style and clearly resonates with a segment of the electorate. The downside is that the tactic tends to alienate middle-of-the-road voters and would make coalition with either of the two big parties after the next election more difficult to achieve.
Within days of taking over the leadership, McDonald had to put a brave face on the collapse of talks aimed at restoring the Northern Executive. That failure was entirely the fault of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which backed out of the deal at the last moment, but the failure to get the Executive up and running has cast a shadow over Sinn Féin.
In the Republic she signalled a new direction for the party by saying she would be prepared to take part in a coalition as the junior partner after the next election. While she was formally rebuffed by Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, the move to make Sinn Féin relevant to the formation of the next government was a smart political tactic.
Her prominent role in the campaign to repeal the Eighth Amendment to the Constitution associated Sinn Féin with the two-thirds majority which voted for change and generated a great deal of positive media coverage. On the negative side it cost Sinn Féin two of its 23 TDs, who were forced out for failing to adhere to the party line.
If the abortion referendum was a success, McDonald's wobble on the issue of a Border poll raised questions about her judgment. Having suggested in early August that a Border poll was not an early priority in the midst of the Brexit chaos, she quickly changed tack and reverted to the demand for an immediate referendum. She was accused by political opponents of bowing to the dictates of the hard men in Belfast.
This was followed by her insistence that Sinn Féin should contest the presidential election against the incumbent, Michael D Higgins. Initially regarded as a clever move to outflank Fianna Fáil, the decision backfired spectacularly when the party's candidate, Liadh Ní Riada, failed to click with the electorate and finished with a paltry 6 per cent of the vote.
All of this has prompted McDonald to focus on shoring up the party base rather than trying to widen its appeal. This has been evident in her trenchant defence of Sinn Féin’s policy of abstention from Westminster and an uncompromising speech at the centenary commemoration of the First Dáil, denouncing the failures of the Irish State. With an election due next year, it won’t be long before that stance – like McDonald’s leadership – faces its biggest test.