The main political parties have little incentive to force a general election at this time because the outcome would almost certainly be a hung Dáil. The latest Irish Times/IpsosMRBI opinion poll shows improvements in the popularity of both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael and their party leaders, while the Government's satisfaction rating has recovered by five points.
Having lost ground to Fine Gael in the autumn, Fianna Fáil regrouped and support for the party now stands at 30 per cent, three points clear of Fine Gael. At the same time, Sinn Féin dropped two points to 17 per cent, while support for the Labour Party increased marginally to 6 per cent.
There has been a steady fall in the level of support for the smaller parties and Independents and they now attract some 20 per cent of the popular vote, down from 30 per cent in last February’s election.
Fianna Fáil will be pleased by its four-point gain over a two-month period. Party leader Micheál Martin will be relieved by its Dublin performance. There, support grew by eight-points and has given him additional reasons to rebuff Bertie Ahern’s offer to rebuild the organisation in Dublin.
Another development, involving an increase of seven points in Enda Kenny’s personal satisfaction rating, may reinforce his determination to stay on as Taoiseach while sowing uncertainty in the ranks of those parliamentary party members calling for an early departure.
Support for Sinn Féin slipped slightly, as did Gerry Adams’ satisfaction rating. In spite of that, support remains elevated when compared with the general election outcome. The party is particularly strong in working class districts and amongst younger people but has failed to translate that approval into votes.
Historical baggage and paramilitary connections, along with regular Dáil assaults on the probity of Mr Adams by the leaders of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil may account for this and could encourage those who favour a change in leadership.
The marked decline in support for smaller groupings, including Independent Alliance, Independents 4 Change, Anti-Austerity Alliance/People Before Profit, the Green Party, Social Democrats and Renua suggests that, facing into Brexit and an uncertain economic relationship with the United States under Donald Trump, voters may be edging back towards traditional arrangements.
Dissatisfaction with the minority Government remains high at 58 per cent, compared to a satisfaction rating of 34 per cent, but the trend is favourable. Fianna Fáil has shaken off much of the opprobrium it garnered after the economic crash and, for the second time in eight years, has attracted support from 30 per cent of voters. Fine Gael achieved its best post-election result but there is little evidence that a disaffected electorate is willing to forget the years of austerity.