Fianna Fáil appears to have decided that Sinn Féin represents such a threat to its survival that it is directing its energies towards blocking that party's medium-term ambition to enter government. This protective strategy will limit party expectations while maintaining its profile as a future leader of government. It comes, however, with considerable risk and could assist the performance of Fine Gael.
Fianna Fáil’s new director of elections Billy Kelleher believes that “on a good day” the party may win 40 Dáil seats. That is five less than Micheál Martin’s target. Both outcomes, however, would leave the party well short of being able to form a government with Independents and Others.
Participation with Sinn Féin has been ruled out on the grounds that it is “unfit for participation in a democratic republican government”. Sharing government with Fine Gael would break traditional taboos but, more importantly, it would leave Sinn Féin as leader of the opposition and the nucleus of an alternative government. Rather than see that happen, Fianna Fáil is expected to challenge from the opposition benches.
Because of the fragmented nature of political support identified by opinion polls, the next government may not last. A renewal of the Fine Gael/ Labour Party arrangement may have to rely on additional support from Independents and smaller parties. In such fragile circumstances, it could make sense for Fianna Fáil to bide its time. But an election strategy based on outdated figures presents dangers, because voters have yet to seriously consider the nature of the next government.
In retreating from its established role as a party of government, the Fianna Fáil leader has caused internal confusion and invited criticism. The development will allow Fine Gael to present itself as the only party able to form a government.
Just how that will play out with the electorate over the coming months is uncertain but Siptu president Jack O’Connor’s caution against Fine Gael securing an overall majority may not be so far-fetched.