Ireland will see a doubling in the incidence of cancer by 2040 according to a report on the national cancer strategy published this week. This is not unexpected given the Republic's young population and the inevitable rise in the number of older people who will be living here in 25 years time. Cancer incidence increases with age, leading the National Cancer Care Programme (NCCP) report to predict the country will face the highest growth of cancer incidence in Europe.
There is no question about the huge progress made by the NCCP since it was established eight years ago. Its first director, Prof Tom Keane, came from Canada with a clear vision of the need to streamline cancer services so that patients with a particular tumour were treated in a centre with a critical mass of ongoing expertise. This was achieved in a relatively short time; now there are eight cancer centres in the Republic that have helped to address a previous "treatment lottery" whereby some patients missed out on radiotherapy and other necessary interventions.
A third national cancer strategy is due to be published next year. It represents an opportunity to review progress made and to identify gaps in services that are beginning to emerge as health funding has decreased. The NCCP report referenced some of these lacunae: just over half of men referred to rapid access prostate clinics in 2013 were seen within the target time. A lack of consultant urologist posts is blamed for mounting delays in Galway, Limerick and Waterford.
Efforts must be made to address a potential logjam for the NCCP arising from a system-wide slowing of elective hospital admissions in recent months. While cancer beds and services are theoretically ring-fenced, centres such as Beaumont hospital in Dublin, have, in recent weeks, been reduced to processing admissions from their emergency departments while elective admissions slow to a trickle.
The Minister for Health must urgently address any threat to the NCCP’s ongoing achievement in improving survival rates for cancer patients here.