This is an election Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will wish to forget, and one a united left is already preparing to build on.
Jim Gavin and Heather Humphreys were poor candidates and failed to ignite voters. But the real issue was that these two big parties campaigned as though it was 2011.
They were unable to break out of traditional media set pieces, built around candidates who seemed as though they belonged to another era. Both parties will have to seriously reflect on the events of the past few weeks, and the bind they created for themselves.
At the outset of Catherine Connolly’s campaign, she spoke about a movement – if this idea initially felt hypothetical, it became real. The movement was authentic and organic. Connolly’s calmness and depth appealed to voters far beyond those very invested in the campaign.
‘The election blew up in our face’ - how Jim Gavin and Fianna Fáil dramatically fell out of the race
Momentum that boosted Catherine Connolly spells trouble for Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil
Michael D Higgins: Poetry, Galway and grandchildren - the future life of a former president
Inside the Catherine Connolly campaign: From gaining cross-party support to digital dexterity
While some commentators insisted it was an uninspiring campaign, many people – especially younger people – were clearly inspired and motivated by Connolly’s candidacy and approach. The energy they brought gave her momentum and broke through the apathy. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil failed to anticipate the emergence of a demographic prepared to act without cynicism when it comes to supporting a candidate they like, and express that support in organic and wholesome ways. Murals were painted, poems were composed, céilís and gigs were hosted, people wore Connolly-branded scarves and jumpers, and a large concert rally was hosted in Vicar Street in Dublin.
Connolly’s media-literate supporters owned the internet, lighting up social media not just with expressions of support for Connolly, but with devastating – often very funny – takes on how Humphreys was floundering. Fine Gael’s digital campaign was torn to shreds, denounced as cringe and hapless. The final poll before election day showed support for Connolly at 83 per cent among 18- to 34-year-olds.
Connolly’s supporters are banking on Connolly being a president in the mould of Michael D Higgins. Few could have forecast back in 2011 that Higgins would become such a beloved figure. At the time, the electorate ultimately backed him on the basis that he was a smart man with decent values, a thoughtful leader who had something to say for himself. They have made the same bet on Connolly.
When Connolly speaks of a “new Republic”, this is not something she intends to deliver but something she is representing. Her supporters don’t think she is going to rip up the script of the office. They just want a president who they feel has integrity and depth. The cultural change of this new Republic has already occurred. The expectation among Connolly’s supporters is that she reflects that change.
One increasingly unavoidable issue for Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil is that they are not culturally attuned to a cohort who proved – in this election – to be the voting majority. They had no answer to how authentically connected Connolly was to the ideas and values of this “new republic” – a phenomenon that is not just a burgeoning idea and aspiration, but is expressing itself culturally, socially and politically. Connolly connected to the social values, cultural motifs and trends and political energy of this idea.
Beyond that, the notion of a united left was clearly exciting to many voters. The tiresome weight of left-wing infighting was lifted and Connolly was rewarded for that.
I can’t imagine anything that will rattle the Government more than those videos from Connolly’s Vicar Street rally showing Roderic O’Gorman, Ruth Coppinger, Paul Murphy, Ivana Bacik, Holly Cairns and Mary Lou McDonald joining hands and holding their arms aloft. This will resonate all the way towards the next general election. This unity was already apparent in the Dáil, with an increasingly coherent left-wing and centre-left bloc in opposition, at a time when the Government appears strangely incapable of defining itself. If that unity and momentum keep up, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are in big trouble.
Fine Gael’s last-gasp pitch on Thursday to dissuade voters from choosing Connolly because of how the world would react to a “far-left” presidency struck many as an act of desperation, particularly as a far more obvious threat to our social cohesion and reputation was what the far-right was up to that week, agitating online and offline to induce a spectacle of mob violence in Dublin.
There was also a discordant movement to spoil votes. Plenty of people wanted a broader ballot. But plenty also marked theirs with an unhinged rage. Should any mainstream party attempt to appeal to those who seek division and othering in Irish society, they will have to own the consequences. In Irish society today, any cynical or opportunistic appeal to right-wing forces is a strategic dead end, and will further consolidate the centre-left and left.
Ultimately, the election campaign should be seen as a vote fuelled by a youthful energy that was in favour of a positive force that expressed optimism, rather than a negative one that expresses division or nihilism, and then endorsed by a much broader vote across generations. At Connolly’s final get-out-the-vote concert, Tricolours were displayed for the right reasons.
A quiet and thoughtful woman, who built a broad coalition and pursued a positive message in the face of negative campaigning, won the day. There’s a lesson in that.
