“You guys are all fixated on the presidential election,” said the Fianna Fáil backbencher. “But honestly, we’re all talking about the school secretaries strike.”
Well, up to a point. A group of Fianna Fáil backbenchers were indeed talking about the strike, and were sufficiently agitated to publicly complain about the (Fine Gael) Minister for Education Helen McEntee’s handling of the matter.
Come off it, Fine Gael responded. It’s their own minister – Jack Chambers (ultimate holder of the purse strings in the Department of Public Expenditure) – they should be talking to. He’s the one holding things up.
Never forget the amount of low-level, inter-party sniping that is the quotidian reality inside the Coalition.
As with most such issues, the campaigning group – in this case school secretaries and caretakers – will probably get what they want eventually. Nobody tends to argue back about these things – they just compete with one another to say that they’ll try to give the campaigners what they want. That’s one of the reasons why public spending continues to grow at such a clip. We’ll come back to that.
The backbenchers – in fairness to them – are genuinely concerned about the situation in the schools. But they’re also enjoying the attention of the presidential election. As will the county councillors over the coming weeks as focus moves to their nominating powers.
The race for the presidency has been dominating political conversations for months now – and there is still seven weeks to go. That’s understandable – the election involves an important office with which people feel a direct connection. It is relatively straightforward, its dynamics and content are immediately comprehensible and it’s full of interesting (well, mostly), competing personalities. What’s not to like?
But it’s not the only thing going on in politics this autumn. The FF backbenchers are going to have to walk and chew gum at the same time. We all are. Here are three areas that will demand and command a lot of political attention in the coming weeks – no matter what’s going on in the presidential election campaign.
The first is the process that dominates every autumn political season: the budget. As is becoming clear in a series of exchanges with the stony-faced Dr Nos of the Department of Public Expenditure (known in political circles as DPer) in recent weeks, this budget is set to be quite different from the pre-election bonanza of last year.
A bunch of “stakeholders” – ie, special interest groups who are seeking public money – including the hospitality sector, business groups, farming organisations, trades unions, etc, held meetings with DPer in the last fortnight. Meanwhile, exchanges with the other Government departments – ongoing since the summer – will move up a gear now, culminating in the “ministerial bilaterals”, where the ministers themselves slug it out, towards the end of the month. It’s all chugging along, says one person involved, noting that there is much less media interest in it this year because were all concentrating on ... you know what.
That’ll change a bit because with money tighter, that means more rows, and sooner or later rows end up going public.
The news this week that corporation tax revenues have nosedived in August was greeted with equanimity (and, actually, secret glee in some places) in the departments of public expenditure and finance because it highlights the volatility of revenues, and therefore strengthens the argument for prudence.
Paschal Donohoe and Jack Chambers believe that this budget – both because of the external environment but also because it is the first post-election budget – will be the big test of the Government’s fiscal strategy: can it stop the massive giveaways and rein in the huge spending increases?
If they don’t, it would not just mark a very public failure for the two men, it would expose the public finances to enormous danger within the lifetime of this Government. And if you want an example of what busted public finances do to a Government, look at the unfolding crises in France and in the UK. No matter how you look at politics, that is a fate to be avoided. At all costs.
The second issue which will be to the fore in the autumn is housing. Why? Because it has never gone away. Survey after survey confirms housing as the focus of public concern. The Taoiseach and Tánaiste have repeatedly declared it is their administration’s “number one priority”.
If that be so, perhaps a greater degree of urgency might be anticipated. The housing minister’s new plan, delayed during the summer, is now expected after the budget. This is a signal, I think, that the debate about tax incentives to stimulate house building is still live within Government.
Strong views abound on either side. Some view it as a potential game-changer for a Government which is – despite its youth – running out of time to change the game on housing. Others see a return to the calamities of the past. Either way, it’s one of the most important decisions of the autumn.
The final set of issues that will command attention in the coming months are related to international affairs. The future of the triple lock – a sort of proxy debate for the future of neutrality – is on the legislative agenda for the autumn and presidential candidate Catherine Connolly is making it a centrepiece of her campaign.
Separately, the Government must decide whether to extend the scope of the Occupied Territories Bill to include services – and how to deal with the potential economic fallout. Ministers are hoping that the Attorney General’s advice will rule services out and make things easier for them. But they can’t escape the fact that this is a political decision – with major consequences awaiting them, whatever they decide.
