Within hours of his gamble, a back-me-or-sack-me ultimatum for a parliamentary vote of confidence, French premier François Bayrou knew it had not paid off. Journalists were already reporting that president Emmanuel Macron was looking around for a cabinet team to succeed him after the entire opposition from left to far-right predictably made clear they would be voting “non” on September 8th.
The French prime minister’s gamble on a losing certainty – he alone apparently still believed he could win with his bold demand for a pre-endorsement of his budget – was, as one observer noted, nothing less than an act of political hara-kiri.
Frustrated by the immovable deadlock in the National Assembly and what he saw as the opposition’s refusal to take seriously the need to manage France’s soaring deficit, Bayrou effectively threw in the towel. The parliamentary maths is simple: adding up the votes of the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) and allies (138), the left-wing parties (192) and the Libertés, Indépendants, Outre-mer et Territoires group (LIOT; 23), Bayrou faces a majority of votes against him. Come September 8th, he will be gone.
His confidence-vote gambit, just as ill-judged in terms of miscalculating the mood in parliament and on the streets, resembles the one taken by Emmanuel Macron when he dissolved the National Assembly just over a year ago. That left the assembly divided three ways with no possibility of securing a majority-supported government, and no way to take badly needed, unpalatable decisions.
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As Le Monde political columnist Françoise Fressoz puts it, “Bayrou has demonstrated that without a parliamentary majority, a prime minister now has just two options: inertia or sacrifice.” His successor will face the same dilemma. Fressoz argues that the system is broken: “The political machine has now become jammed because there is no clear majority to serve as the focus for people’s disillusionment and anger.”
Both Bayrou and Macron have sought to circumvent the parliamentary deadlock by various means – enraging MPs with attempts to impose measures by presidential diktat (only to provoke votes of confidence), or suggesting, but not following through on, a variety of referendums to appeal over the heads of politicians to sceptical voters. How about changing the voting system to a more proportional one, a long-time Bayrou project? Or asking voters directly if they approve of the despised pension reforms or tax measures? They don’t.
Both men face the uncomfortable reality that the parliamentary maths accurately reflect – even understate – popular disenchantment with them. Bayrou has a record-low approval rating for any head of government in France’s Fifth Republic. And his big claim – as his predecessor Michel Barnier’s 91-day government fell – that his record was one of a politician who promoted reconciliation between parties and with a sceptical, alienated public rings hollow.
Macron, unwilling to make the budget concession required by either the left or RN necessary for their support, faces three equally unpalatable choices: appointing another almost certainly short-lived centrist government, calling another general election, or, horror of horrors, resigning. He will almost certainly opt to give himself breathing space by going for the first, giving himself time to conjure up a political legacy and find a credible successor for the 2027 presidentials, when he has to stand down.
But even “inertia” may no longer be an option as France’s political crisis deepens, spreading as usual from parliament to the streets. The confidence vote is scheduled two days before most of the country is expected to grind to a halt, swept by strikes and protests organised by the catch-all “Bloquons tout” (“Let’s Block Everything”) movement – akin to the Gilets Jaunes movement that convulsed France just a few years ago.
[ The Irish Times view on politics in France: stuck in a bindOpens in new window ]
Its target is the deeply unpopular Bayrou budget, whose broad lines will survive its author’s departure. Measures that were particularly unpopular to the left – the elimination of two public holidays, a freeze on pensions, welfare benefits and tax brackets – are seen by Macron as essential to the €40 billion-plus cuts that he insists are needed. The RN has its own shopping list: large cuts to immigration funding, a reduction in France’s contribution to the EU and the elimination of dozens of government agencies.
Using the same rhetoric as Macron did before his 2024 snap elections, the prime minister sees September 8th as a moment of “clarification,” a shock to the system that will bring parties to their senses. “Everyone will now be held accountable,” Bayrou argues, convinced that “this clarification is the very condition for our country to regain its footing.” Macron was the one who got the shock. Bayrou is certain to be disappointed – it is more likely to be a case of “Après moi, le déluge”.
