The only effective Opposition is one that can replace an incumbent Government. Sinn Féin, the main Opposition party since 2020, has failed twice to provide that change.
Since the general election of 2016, after which Fianna Fáil supported a Fine Gael-led Government, real electoral competition has been between those parties for dominance of a shrinking political centre. Smaller parties and independents have walk-on parts but there has been no sight of an alternative Government.
Given that after 2011, Fine Gael and Labour adopted the economic policies agreed by Fianna Fáil and the Troika, the last general election to offer a clear choice between Government and Opposition was in 2007, and that was a different world.
Sinn Féin says it wants a left alliance, but some of its TDs would prefer an alliance with Fianna Fáil. But left alliance or not, the party must build support based on discontent with the Government, while convincing voters it can manage Irish capitalism in the interests of the Irish people.
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The capacity and momentum of the main Opposition party is an essential part of the political dynamic. It is unclear what sort of alternative Sinn Féin might be and who it might govern with.
This can only be sorted after a general election. But that miasma surrounding what it stands for, and what sort of Government it would be, is part of the answer about why it remains in Opposition.
What is at stake is not just the choice we will have in an election, likely in 2029, it is the terms of public debate in the interim. After the last general election, the Dáil was consumed by procedural hullabaloo over voting rights for some independent TDs and virtually nothing was done.
The next term, beginning on September 17th, is back to school and a lot is at stake. Almost immediately there will be a Budget, sign-off of the revised National Development Plan (NDP) and a presidential election.
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The wider context is an outright threat to the fiscal base of the State, demographic change, climate change and AI. Energy and capacity are important in politics, and 2029 will mark 13 years of alliance and nine years of Coalition between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.
Unloved but re-elected, the Government palpably lacks the capacity to reorganise public administration to deliver public policy effectively. But rather than being energised by this opportunity, Sinn Féin seems tired and disorganised.
Across a swathe of issues, it has tactically placed a foot in both camps and ends up being all over the place and unconvincing. It has tacked to the right – but not the far-right – on immigration. On climate, it wants to save the planet but opposes virtually every effective measure to do so, including carbon charges.
Tactically, it says it wants a broad left Coalition, and its eventual choice in the presidential election will test that theory.
On Dublin City Council, however, it refused to join Labour, Social Democrats and the Greens to abolish the 15 per cent reduction in the Local Property Charge previously availed of by councillors to better fund local services.
On housing, its key issue, a test of credibility is looming. There is a yawning gap between rental revenue from social housing and the cost of maintaining estates. In Dublin, there will soon be a proposal to partially close that gap – and for now Sinn Féin is in the conversation, but there is scepticism about whether it will stay in or go AWOL.
A party that doesn’t want a local property tax for anyone but wants free third level fees for everyone isn’t a left party or part of a broader left alliance.
Consistency is an often-overrated virtue in politics but inconsistency eventually crystallises into incredulity. In an election, voters make broad judgments. Sometimes, what gets a rousing cheer on the day recurs later as doubt about credibility and Sinn Féin has a credibility issue.
The party is hemmed by policy inconsistencies and by its past, which is unpalatable for many. Its clothes have been stolen by the Government and its thunder by the far-right.
Once prophesied to wreck the economy, the Government instead exceeded even Sinn Féin’s improvidence on public spending and won a fantasy politics race to the top. Flying tricolours on roofs might once have suggested support for Sinn Féin; now they are more likely to be signs of vehement opposition to it and allegiance to the far-right. The party no longer owns the underside of nationalism. The world is changing and the challenge for Sinn Féin will be to be credible in a context where there will be more hard choices and far fewer easy answers.
