The emergence of Heather Humphreys as the reluctant candidate has transformed the presidential election race. While it took the unfortunate withdrawal due to illness of Mairead McGuinness as the Fine Gael candidate to push Humphreys into the contest, the fact she had to be persuaded into running for the highest office in the land could well turn to her advantage.
Voters may well warm to somebody who is eminently qualified for the office but who doesn’t have the kind of ego that made her feel entitled to enter the race at the start. However, she will need to convince people she is in the right frame of mind and fit enough to undertake the duties of president, given she left politics last year on the basis she was exhausted after a decade as a government minister.
Announcing her candidature earlier in the week she was adamant she is fully restored and relishing the challenge of the presidency. While the office of president is not nearly as pressurised as that of a Cabinet Minister it does require commitment and stamina to undertake the scale of public appearances and functions that go with the job.
The first hurdle Humphreys has to overcome is to win the Fine Gael nomination but it seems she will have little difficulty seeing off the challenge of Ireland South MEP Seán Kelly. There is great enthusiasm for her among Fine Gael TDs and members but translating that into wide public support is another matter.
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As a Presbyterian from the Border region Humphreys has a deep connection to both the nationalist and unionist traditions on this island. One of her grandparents, Robert James Stewart, signed the Ulster Covenant opposing Home Rule in 1912 while members of her parent’s generation supported Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil at different times.
As president, Humphreys would be able to personify the shared-island vision articulated by Taoiseach Micheál Martin in contrast to the facile notion of a united Ireland ruled from Dublin, which appears to be the default position of so many politicians.
There was a strong argument for Martin to endorse her as the joint Government candidate but it appears he is not going to go down that route. If he attempted it, Martin would certainly be challenged by some in his party but the question is who does he have as a viable candidate?
He has let it be known he is adamantly opposed to allowing Bertie Ahern be the party’s standard bearer. He takes the view that the former taoiseach’s embarrassing evidence to the planning tribunal would become the dominant issue in the campaign rather than Ahern’s massive achievement in negotiating the Belfast Agreement.
In recent weeks Martin expressed the view that the presidency doesn’t belong to any party, saying Fianna Fáil could “facilitate the right candidate” who could command broad respect and the capacity to represent the country at home and abroad. If he is ruling out Ahern, wouldn’t Humphreys fit that bill?
It would not be an unprecedented move for Fianna Fáil to support a candidate from another party. The party did not run a candidate in either 2011 or 2018 and last time around actually endorsed Labour’s Michael D Higgins for a second term. While backing a Fine Gael candidate would be a bigger ask, it should be recalled that in 2004 Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny backed the incumbent Fianna Fáil president Mary McAleese for a second term.
Humphreys’s strong appeal in rural Ireland and her openness as a minister to TDs of all parties and none was evidenced by the backing she received from the Independent junior Ministers Michael Healy-Rae, Seán Canney and Noel Grealish before she even announced her candidature. If she can widen that appeal further and get support from politicians and groups outside Fine Gael her campaign would really take off.
She could take a leaf out of the way Mary Robinson managed to present herself in 1990 as an Independent and not simply a Labour candidate. For instance three former Labour ministers have told me privately they are appalled at the party’s decision to back Catherine Connolly and intend to vote for Humphreys. Getting public backing from non-Fine Gael figures would be a real boost to her campaign.
When it comes to campaigning, one thing Humphreys will have to overcome is her nervousness in dealing with the media. That has its origins in the way she was plunged into a controversy immediately after her initial appointment to the cabinet in 2014 when her reluctance to defend the indefensible left her tongue-tied and on the defensive during the controversy over the Seanad nomination of John McNulty.
While that controversy was a long time ago it left its mark and Humphreys often appears nervous in media interviews. She needs to relax, not get flustered when awkward questions are thrown at her and allow her naturally warm personality to shine through. If she does that she will be difficult to beat, even if Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin decide to run their own candidates.
