With every breath you take today, some of the carbon dioxide you breathe in possibly was emitted to the atmosphere several centuries ago. True, an infinitesimally small contribution – but one that reminds us that some of the greenhouse gases we emit today will still be around, trapping the Earth’s heat, cent far into the distant future.
Some have shorter lifetimes. Methane, for example, which constitutes 30 per cent of Irish greenhouse gas emissions, produces its intense warming effect 80 times greater than CO2 over 20 years. But it doesn’t stop there, as much of it then converts to CO2, which joins the long term store of that gas for centuries. Those who would have you believe that the warming effect of methane emissions disappear after a decade or so are simply wrong. It matters not to the atmosphere whether that methane has come from a dairy cow or a leaking gas pipeline. It all ends up in the atmospheric reservoir of greenhouse gases for future generations to cope with.
So decisions made today regarding our emissions have very long-term consequences for those who come after us. It also confirms that there is no turning back the dial in terms of the warming effect of gases already emitted. No feasible removal technology exists at the scale and deployment level to get us out of our predicament over the next few decades. This means that there is only a certain amount of additional emissions that the world can add to the atmosphere before trigger points of warming and potential tipping points of climate dislocation are inevitable.
For a 50-50 chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels, the remaining global budget at the beginning of this year was estimated to be 235 billion tonnes of CO2. This will be used up in around six years at current rates of emission. The best we can do is buy time by radical cuts in emissions.
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What is Ireland’s fair share of this remaining budget? How should countries that have benefited from burning fossil fuels since the industrial revolution do in any allocation, compared with developing countries that have only recently started emitting significant amounts of greenhouse gases? Ireland has sought to address these issues in its climate legislation and its adherence to the Paris Agreement of 2015 by a system of legally binding five-yearly carbon budgets. The most recent update of these has been recommended to the Minister for the Environment by the Climate Change Advisory Council. These limit national emissions to 295, 200 and 160 million tonnes for each of the five year periods 2021-25, 2026-30 and 2031-35 respectively. Before taking these limits to the Oireachtas for approval, the Minister is seeking public submissions on them to be made before June 4th. It is an opportunity for citizens to express their views on this critical intergenerational issue.
These new carbon budgets were required to be formulated in compliance with the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development (Amendment) Act 2021, which was passed overwhelmingly, and enthusiastically supported by the two major parties in government today. This Act also requires consistency with Article 2.2 of the Paris Agreement, which requires governments to implement their climate actions to “reflect equity and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in the light of different national circumstances.” This convoluted phrase essentially brings us back to the issue of fairness. What is fair for a rich country like Ireland to claim in terms of the remaining global carbon budget? Has this principle been observed in formulating the new round of carbon budgets?
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In its first report in 2021 advising the minister on the design of the original carbon budgets (2021-2030) the Climate Change Advisory Council produced a reasoned justification of how the budgets represented a fair and equitable contribution to meeting the needs of Paris 2.2. But in the latest iteration, this aspect is completely missing. Only a temperature criterion is offered regarding compliance with the Paris objective of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees, without any significant consideration of equity/fairness. This raises important legal issues as to the extent to which the required consistency with an international treaty is being observed.
For a nation with a proud record of supporting less well-off countries in the Global South, ignoring a basic tenet of climate justice is unethical and selfish. It’s rather like saying we will grab an unfair share of the remaining carbon budget and expect poorer countries to accommodate us by picking up the slack – the same countries that will also suffer more adverse climate consequences.
The reality is that we in Ireland have already – or are close to having – exhausted our fair share of the dwindling global carbon budget. We are now entering carbon debt territory to the rest of the world. This is not an academic exercise – we are disproportionately contributing to the climate disasters of the present and future beyond our shores. This is not a comfortable situation to be in.
What will you say to your children and grandchildren?
“Sorry, kids, we opted to plunder your legacy to sustain our comfortable lifestyles in the 2020s. We wanted to keep our SUVs, further intensify our agriculture, and continue subsidising fossil fuels to the extent of €4.7 billion annually. Our political leaders facilitated us at every stage as they prioritised holding on to power. Yes, we did know that blowing your legacy condemns everyone here in Ireland to future catastrophic flooding, heatwaves, droughts and storms. It’s tough, but do the best you can.”
John Sweeney is emeritus professor in the Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units (Icarus) at the department of geography at Maynooth University
