For: Mandy Johnston
Ireland’s energy security has reached a crisis point. Successive governments have pursued politically expedient policies that have left the country dangerously vulnerable to energy shocks.
As one of the most energy import-dependent nations in the European Union, Ireland has resisted developing a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) terminal – an essential safeguard against supply disruptions.
The 2020 Programme for Government banned indigenous gas exploration and LNG terminal development, a move designed to appease the Green Party at the expense of realistic energy planning.
The promise that renewables would bridge the gap has proven illusory. Five years later, Ireland’s energy security is in worse shape than ever. With the Green Party out of government, policymakers are finally acknowledging the urgent need for LNG infrastructure.
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Blaming the Greens alone is misguided; Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have also failed to treat energy security as the pressing issue it is. Meanwhile, other European nations – Germany, Italy, France, and the UK – have adapted to the new geopolitical reality, recognising energy as a strategic asset.
Ireland is waking up to the reality that energy security is non-negotiable and that without it our ability to attract foreign investment – a pillar of economic success – is at serious risk. A well-educated workforce and competitive tax structure mean little if businesses cannot rely on a stable energy supply.
A big vulnerability lies in Ireland’s dependence on the UK for 75 per cent of its gas. This comes through the interconnector pipelines to Scotland – pipelines that could easily be the subject of malign interference similar to damage to pipelines in the Baltic Sea.
Brexit has introduced new uncertainties as the UK is now outside the EU’s single energy market. Before Brexit, Ireland was deemed energy secure due to its reliance on UK imports, but that status no longer holds. We fail the EU’s basic energy security test (N-1 Infrastructure), yet we continue to ignore the implications.
Domestic gas demand is rising, making external dependence even riskier. The belief that renewables alone can meet Ireland’s energy needs is unrealistic. Our grid is not equipped for such a transition, nor is renewable infrastructure progressing quickly enough to match demand.
The only logical short-term solution is to develop LNG storage facilities to ensure supply continuity certainty.
Yet rather than allowing the private sector – best equipped to handle energy infrastructure efficiently – to develop LNG, the Government has handed the project to Gas Networks Ireland. This bureaucratic approach threatens to delay progress at a time when swift action is critical.
If Ireland is serious about expanding renewable capacity, it must also ensure energy security by allowing private enterprise to develop LNG infrastructure while continuing to invest in building sustainability.
One of the primary objections to LNG – opposition to fracked gas – is deeply flawed. Ireland already consumes fracked gas via UK imports, where the grid blends fracked and non-fracked sources. Objecting to an LNG terminal on these grounds is disingenuous at best and dangerously shortsighted at worst.
The LNG debate is not about choosing between renewables and fossil fuels. It is about securing a stable, reliable energy supply
Ireland is now an anomaly in Europe: one of only five nations without LNG storage. The August 2023 Global Energy Vulnerability Index ranked Ireland 94th out of 100 in self-sufficiency, making us the third-worst performer in the EU, and we came 70th overall in the vulnerability rankings.
Other European countries have moved swiftly to shore up energy resilience, recognising it as a national security imperative. The absence of gas storage or LNG options only exacerbates our vulnerabilities, especially in an era of rising geopolitical tensions and cyber threats to critical infrastructure.
The LNG debate is not about choosing between renewables and fossil fuels. It is about securing a stable, reliable energy supply while continuing to invest in building indigenous sustainability. Energy security is not a luxury – it is a necessity. In times of crisis, ideological purity is a dangerous indulgence.
The pragmatic solution is clear: allow private enterprise to develop LNG infrastructure while accelerating renewable investment. This is not just a business case; it is a national imperative. Ireland must act now or face the consequences of continued inaction.
Mandy Johnston is the former CEO of the Irish Offshore Operators’ Association
Against: Aideen O’Dochartaigh
Last week, the Government announced plans to develop an offshore floating LNG terminal as an emergency gas reserve, utilised in the event of disruption to pipeline supply from the UK.
But LNG is a costly risk which could be far more expensive than expected, become redundant before it is even complete, and would not protect us from weather-related supply disruption.
An LNG import terminal in Ireland might please Donald Trump, but it is the wrong choice for energy sustainability, security and affordability.
The initial case for a gas storage reserve was presented in the 2023 Energy Security Package, with subsequent analysis by Gas Networks Ireland (GNI) presented to then minister Eamon Ryan last year.
Ryan revealed last month that GNI was concerned that the LNG terminal option would take too long to develop, cost more than planned and would require a minimum of six top up shipments a year, adding too much to the State’s and GNI’s carbon footprints.
LNG is not a plug-and-play solution: costs and lead times vary widely and struggle to recover their cost of capital. The Government has estimated the capital cost at €300 million, which likely covers the purchase of a floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) and construction of the necessary infrastructure – the jetty and marine berth and the gas distribution connection.
Operating costs, which typically include chartering LNG shipments, offloading the gas to the FSRU and managing the terminal, are estimated at €60 million annually.
However, these operating costs are highly dependent on volatile LNG prices and weather conditions, and operators can face unpleasant price shocks. Germany invested heavily in four FSRUs in 2022 at an initial estimated cost of €2.5 billion.
But operating costs have proven so high that last year the country was forced to commit almost twice that (€4.06 to €4.96 billion) in state aid to cover the related losses.
High operating costs incentivise the LNG operator to use the terminal as much as possible to recover costs, locking us into high-carbon energy investment which delays the energy transition, with serious financial consequences. Ireland has already paid €195 million in EU climate fines and could face penalties of up to €26 billion if we miss our 2030 targets.
Investing in LNG could leave the Government with a project that is redundant before it is even complete
There is huge market momentum behind clean energy. Last year investment in renewables exceeded €2.1 trillion globally and it is now cheaper to produce wind, solar and battery storage than gas and coal.
As the International Energy Agency recently warned, continued investment in oil and gas could result in oversupply, leaving investors, in this case the State, with expensive stranded assets.
GNI’s analysis reportedly suggested that the LNG terminal might not be operational until the mid-2030s. With electricity projects such as the Celtic interconnector expected to come on stream in 2026 and power 450,000 homes, investing in LNG could leave the Government with a project that is redundant before it is even complete.
Beyond emergency supply in the event of pipeline supply disruption, deemed unlikely in the Energy Security Package, the benefits of LNG for energy consumers are not clear.
In Germany energy prices for consumers have not improved with LNG investment; gas prices for new customers increased by 43 per cent in the last year.
Furthermore, LNG is not a solution to weather-related energy disruption. Extreme weather events, more frequent due to climate change, damage energy infrastructure.
Solutions to power disruption, and to our wider energy security, lie not in large centralised fossil fuel projects but localised distributed renewables and energy storage, and demand management that prioritises households and essential services over large commercial energy users such as data centres.
Aideen O’Dochartaigh is assistant professor in accounting at DCU and specialises in sustainability accounting and responsible business
