The government about to take office has an air of good times in the late 20th century. It feels as if the gang’s all here again, and policy is resolutely pre-ideological. It is not just Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, but even the long-lost cousins who have arrived. Collectively diminished since their heyday, this coalition is still the greatest assembly of old-style politics in one government ever. There is a festive air about them, and a sense with some that the best days are yet to come. They aren’t, of course.
The programme for government might have been assembled with tactical skill but it is a strategic failure. Gathering almost every TD with a stake in the status quo in one government will prove to be a mistake. There was a time when they offered choice between themselves. Now choice will have to be found elsewhere – and eventually it will.
The programme for government is as substantial as a sandcastle – it will be fine unless it washes away. It is uncosted, whatever-you’re-having-yourself stuff, made for wheeler-dealers. Some of it is so aspirational it could not be costed. It is purposefully unhinged from economics and better for it.
We are led by peacetime generals, whose skills are to divvy out the spoils. So far, they have been lucky generals
Negotiations on the real programme for government will only begin after the government is formed next week. A new medium term fiscal plan will be published midyear. In so far as it might be subsequently observed, that is the real deal, in contrast with the indicative wish list published on Wednesday.
Programme for government is notable not just for a lack of ideology, but a lack of passion
Ireland’s risk-averse civil service cannot speed up delivery of the things we need most
Ireland is being harmed by divorce between managing the economy and managing public spending
Verona Murphy getting the Ceann Comhairle job was a sign of Michael Lowry’s political savvy
In tandem with a fiscal plan, there will be a review of the National Development Plan which, because it is under delivering, is underspending. So there will be headroom to accommodate new projects, or reprioritise others. This is where the real constituency work is done. It will be of acute interest to the Regional Independents. It will also be a real test of the political commitment to decarbonising the economy. Nearly all the decisions that count lie ahead.
Even if much of it is largely aspirational, and still be conditioned by the reality of spending decisions, there is a bias within the programme in favour of spending and against tax cuts. There is a commitment to indexing credits and bands to prevent an increase in the real burden of income tax. But there are no other specific commitments on income tax.
That erases the Fine Gael mantra of cutting taxes – VAT for hospitality aside. Its record on promises of tax cuts is largely bluster, even if it was an important part of their political act. In Opposition, Fine Gael are fiscal hawks, but in government they spend like socialists, and in a fourth successive term the consequences have caught up.
The bigger question is about political will. This doesn’t look like a government of radical reform
For those who foolishly disdain the political diaspora of regional Independents who are back in the fold with the parties they mainly came from, it’s worth looking at the relative modesty of their requirements. What, after all, are provisions for a constituency, or the opportunity to serve in government, compared with the industrial scale of current spending based on uncertain corporation taxes?
The tenuous conditionality of the spending commitments agreed is underlined by the proviso that the incoming government would postpone changes to income tax credits or bands in an economic downturn. That is a tax increase. Micheál Martin said as much in the leaders’ debate during the election, while Simon Harris suggested that borrowing would be best in an economic shock.
If you can infer anything from it, the programme for government suggests a preference for restraint if circumstances change. And if they do, its aspirations will wither, because everything is premised on the good times rolling on. Conveniently for the new government parties’ enemies, because they have all come together, they can all hang together.
In Opposition, Fine Gael are fiscal hawks, but in government they spend like socialists, and in a fourth successive term the consequences have caught up
The programme for government is notable not just for a lack of ideology – that can’t be a criticism of people who never had any – but a lack of passion and priority. It is all so tactical there is no room left for strategy. Reforming and re-energising the State to enable delivery of promises made and funds allocated to those promises, is essential.
In fairness, there are some commitments on this. A dedicated Infrastructure Division in a renamed Department of Public Expenditure, and a cabinet subcommittee on infrastructure, are coming. The lack of either previously tells its own story. The bigger question is about political will, and public service willingness to overhaul culture to improve delivery. This doesn’t look like a government of radical reform.
The spectre of Donald Trump and of events yet to play out haunt it all. We are led by peacetime generals whose skills are to divvy out the spoils. So far, they have been lucky generals. But if a real crisis were to come, they have no personal experience making hard decisions, except for Micheál Martin.
There is no new energy, but there is new politics. It is a generation since an Irish taoiseach was a chief in the old style. Now the office of taoiseach is co-owned between the two larger parties and further circumscribed by a third entity. There is now nothing new in this, but the institutionalisation of rotation means that, layer by layer of barely perceptible pressure, the communalisation of the office continues. If only the band plays on, we have politics made for jiving to.