I imagine that many people in Ireland are quietly hoping that some of the more pessimistic forecasts of what the Trump presidency could mean for this country prove to be wrong and that somehow the old adage that politicians campaign in poetry but govern in prose will turn out in practice to mitigate those forecasts.
Newspapers here recently reported that the Taoiseach was launching what was oddly termed a “diplomatic offensive” – a contradiction in terms if ever I saw one – in the US designed to counter the risks to our economy of full-blooded implementation of Trump’s campaign promises.
It seems increasingly clear that Elon Musk is actively pursuing a campaign designed to polarise European politics and to support hard-right European politicians, many of whom are hostile to centrist government in EU member states.
While Musk is not Trump’s nominee for secretary of state – a position marked out for senator Marco Rubio – he seems to consider that because he may have personal or corporate business interests in Europe, he has some role or function in using his wealth to influence political processes and debate in European states.
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His personalised criticism of Keir Starmer and his seeming endorsement of demands that there should be a national investigation of the UK’s failures in detecting and preventing sexual abuse and rape of young and under-age white girls by rings of Muslim men predominantly from Pakistan, are a case in point. Is he really concerned at a personal level at that terrible pattern of abuse that has been exposed in many parts of the UK? Is he anxious that the perpetrators should be brought to justice and punished? Or is his point that there has been some form of conspiracy of silence or tacit cover-up for fear of fanning racial tensions? Or does he see an opportunity to conflate immigration with crimes against women and to strengthen that Trumpian trope? Or does he simply see a clear opportunity to discredit Starmer with a view to removing Labour from office? Is this part of his strange campaign to persuade King Charles to dissolve the House of Commons to bring about a reversal of the Labour landslide majority elected last summer?
What will be the impact of Elon Musk’s political meddling?
Stranger still is his behaviour in relation to the UK’s Reform party. After signalling his intention to give Reform massive financial support in the form of a $100 million donation – presumably to be routed through one or more of his UK companies – he has since decided that Nigel Farage is not up to the job of leading Reform. This change of heart is apparently caused by the refusal of Farage to admit Tommy Robinson to membership of Reform.
Robinson – previously known as Stephen Christopher Yaxley-Lennon – is currently serving an 18-month prison sentence for contempt of court for breach of an injunction restraining him from libelling a young school-going refugee after being found liable for £100,000 in damages for the same defamation. Robinson had previously been imprisoned on four occasions, including assault and mortgage fraud.
Ironically, Robinson had entered the US as an illegal immigrant in 2013. He appeared on the notorious US Infowars newscast seeking political asylum in the United States.
Infowars was the medium controlled by Alex Jones to publish and propagate the grossly untrue myth – subsequently believed by 18 per cent of US citizens polled – that the massacre of schoolchildren at Sandy Hook had never occurred and that the parents of the victims were themselves inventing and lying about the false claim of their children’s murders. Jones was adjudicated for libel damages in amounts close to $1 billion by a Connecticut jury and the jury verdict was largely upheld on appeal.
After acquiring Twitter and renaming it X, Musk restored Jones as a user on the site from which he had been barred in 2018 after many years’ propagation of false conspiracy theories. Now Musk wants Robinson released from prison and admitted to membership of Reform. Musk has also urged German voters to support the AFD party. In Ireland, he attempted to champion opposition to the Government’s Hate Speech Bill.
Those of us who successfully stymied that ill-considered and oppressive Bill from becoming law as proposed were quick to disown Musk’s unwelcome and constitutionally mistaken efforts to become involved in the controversy.
For us in Ireland, the role of Musk and the influence he has in the Trump camp must remain seriously problematic. Is he to be an outlier or an insider?
The Trump effect is not simply likely to be felt in taxation, tariffs and trade wars. Nor is it only relevant to relations with Putin and European democracy.
Its full blast has the capacity to destabilise Irish democracy and to radically polarise the political discourse on this island. Who does Reform support in Northern Ireland? Have we our own Tommy Robinsons waiting in the wings for Musk’s support? Food for thought.