In a political era that is roiled by uncertainty of every type, one of the most significant unknowns in Irish politics concerns the future of someone who is at once familiar, but also, in his way, enigmatic – Tánaiste and Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin.
Martin faces two huge personal and political decisions in the coming 12 months. The choices he makes will have far-reaching implications not just for himself but for his party, and potentially for the shape of the next Government.
First, this summer Martin will have to decide whether he will be Ireland’s next European Commissioner. The role is entirely within his gift (including to himself). Although the agreements about key appointments are not part of the official programme for Government, they are an essential part of the deal the three parties concluded in the early summer of 2020, which has scaffolded the Coalition at its inception and given it a roadmap since then.
I very much doubt that this aspect of the agreement is – as it is often characterised – “unwritten”; my guess is that it is very clearly written down somewhere. And under that agreement, the nomination of a European Commissioner in 2024 is an entitlement of Fianna Fáil. That is why the replacement for Phil Hogan, when he left the role, was a Fine Gaeler, Mairead McGuinness. She has indicated her willingness continue in the role, but her service will not be required, I fear.
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There has been some hot talk last year that Martin could replace Charles Michel as President of the European Council, a somewhat grandiose title which hardly conveys his principal role – chairing the EU’s most important decision-making body, the group of heads of government. It’s a role Martin would be well-suited for, but his chances are not good. He has not featured in the recent Brussels speculation prompted by Michel’s announcement (before backtracking) that he will leave early to contest the European Parliament elections. In addition, Ireland’s military neutrality and vocal position in support of Palestine (not vocal enough for some, it is true) will not reassure France and Germany and others in the European mainstream that Martin is a fit for a job that does have a foreign policy role representing EU leaders.
In any event, the Council President’s job will be part of the unpredictable merry-go-round of EU jobs that takes place this summer, involving the Commission, the Council, the European Parliament and others in which gender, geography and party allegiance all have to be balanced. In summary, it’s a very, very long shot.
Which means that it’s probably the Commission or nothing. If I was writing this column six months ago, I would have ventured that Martin was more likely than not to go to Brussels next summer. Not now. In recent months, he has looked to me like a man more inclined to hang around for a bit yet.
If Martin does stay, it will be because he believes Fianna Fáil is much stronger with him as leader
But we don’t know. “Anyone who tells you they know what he will do is lying,” says one person close to him. Likely he hasn’t made his mind up yet.
Here’s what he said on RTÉ’s This Week last weekend. “It’s a very interesting position for anybody ... but that doesn’t arise in my case.” He stressed he would lead Fianna Fáil into the next election.
If Martin does stay, it will be because he believes Fianna Fáil is much stronger with him as leader (he’s right about that) but also because he believes he has a fair shot at being Taoiseach after the next election, heading up some iteration of a Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael-plus-plus administration – the two centrist parties with the support of one or more small parties and/or independents.
That would not be the outcome if an election were held now; but there isn’t going to be an election for some time. And, one Government number cruncher advises, it would take a swing from current polls smaller than any seen in the last 20 year to return the current Coalition. I don’t think this is the most likely outcome of the election; it is, however, certainly possible.
But Martin is unlikely to decide to stay without having considered the other big decision – what he would do if that scenario did not arise.
Current polling – with all the caveats that demands – suggests that neither the return of a FF-FG-based coalition or Sinn Féin’s stated preference of a Sinn Féin-led coalition of the left without either of the two old centre parties is the most likely outcome of an election. In such an outcome, intense focus will come on the possibility of a Fianna Fáil-Sinn Féin coalition.
This is certainly the preference of some people in Sinn Féin, who believe such an arrangement would be considerably more stable that herding left-wing cats around the coalition crossroads for five years (or less, more likely); it is also the preference of some people in Fianna Fáil, though they are far fewer in number.
The decision Martin will have to make is what his approach to such a post-election situation will be. He tends to get rather snippy when asked this question, preferring to talk about a) the possibility of the current administration returning, and b) the importance of policy in political debates, rather than just the horse-race, or the coalitionology, as he terms it.
But he is smart enough to know that the question will be endlessly repeated: would you or would you not talk to Sinn Féin about a coalition? Last time out, he said no. Can he really continue saying no? That is the second political choice that faces Martin. He has probably never faced a bigger one.
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