Here are five things that will crowd on to the political agenda in the new year:
Immigration/asylum
It’s not going away, folks. The riots in Dublin — powered by hoodlums, triggered by the far right — were not about immigration policy per se. But like it or not, they have pitched immigration and asylum policy as well as law and order to the centre of political debate. Like it or not, there is significant public concern about the whole area. Like it or not, the parties will have to deal with it.
The most likely landing place for immigration asylum policy is a significantly expanded domestic capacity for asylum seeker accommodation, and a significantly accelerated — compared to now, anyway — system for processing asylum claims. It is doubtful that the political system can combine this with an imaginative and effective programme to admit economic migrants, on which substantial parts of our economy and public services depend.
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But it is certainly going to be one of the issues of 2024, here and all over the western world. You only have to look at what’s happening throughout Europe on migration, where it is the number one issue in many countries. Let’s hope we can deal with it a bit more decently. But that won’t be achieved without engaging with people’s anxieties on the subject, legitimate and otherwise.
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Hate speech Bill
Minister for Justice Helen McEntee is committed to bringing forward the hate crime/hate speech Bill early in the new year. Indeed, in the aftermath of the Dublin riots, the Taoiseach and the Tánaiste said it would be done by the end of this year. But the legislation has proved tricky, not least because it has avoided defining hate, but also because it is not clear what it will be illegal to say after its passage that it isn’t already illegal to say now.
The Bill will certainly have its parliamentary critics, but it has also gained widespread international attention, including from Twitter/X owner Elon Musk. McEntee has been busy telling everyone that the new Bill doesn’t go half as far as people fear.
But she has some explaining to do to people in favour of the Bill, too. When it was in the Seanad earlier this year, Green Party Senator Pauline O’Reilly explained: “If your views on other people’s identities go to make their lives unsafe, insecure and cause them such deep discomfort that they cannot live in peace then I believe that it is our job as legislators to restrict those freedoms for the common good.” If that’s what the Bill does, then McEntee will find opposition to it extends beyond nutters on Twitter.
Election speculation
Brace yourself. There will certainly be two national elections, the locals and Euros, this year. Expect speculation about a general election to start early and continue unabated until it happens.
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Broadly, there are three possible windows for the next election — spring of 2024, autumn of 2024 and spring of 2025. If it’s going to be spring, we should know soon enough, as preparations in Fine Gael (it is the Fine Gael Taoiseach who will ultimately decide) will take off like a rocket in the new year. But Leo Varadkar needs a public-facing reason beyond “I believe this is in my political interest” to go in the first half of 2024 — and as of now, he doesn’t have that. A better bet is autumn, likely after another big expenditure budget. But Fianna Fáil and the Greens want to go the distance, until the spring of 2025, and if the Government wants to present itself as a success deserving of re-election, a messy and disputatious end is not ideal. Going the distance is dangerous, though, because you leave yourself at the mercy of events. But the reality is there are potential pitfalls no matter when Varadkar decides to go. You can be assured that the whole thing will be speculated upon ad magnam nauseam from now until D-Day.
Big jobs
Yes, the cemeteries are full of indispensable men. But the characters and relationships at the highest level of Government matter. That’s why the possible departure of Paschal Donohoe to the International Monetary Fund next summer and —perhaps — Michael McGrath to the European Commission around the same time represents a material threat to the wellbeing of the Coalition. If McGrath doesn’t go, who will? Micheál Martin? That seems now less likely than it did a year ago, but it would still be an earthquake for Fianna Fáil. The truth is the public is magnificently uninterested in jobs for politicians — but politicians are very interested in the topic.
March referendums
The proposed referendums on the constitutional language about women and carers have generated about as much enthusiasm in Government — with the exception of Roderic O’Gorman and, periodically, Leo Varadkar — as a dose of the runs. Nonetheless, the legislation has been tabled in the Dáil and the date has been set, so they are going to go ahead. Even at this stage, with the propensity of a chunk of voters to vote against anything the Government proposes, they have the look of a giant banana skin.
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State-funded non-governmental organisations (NGOs) like the National Women’s Council and supposed allies in the trade unions are all saying they will have to have a good think about it before deciding on their position. Ultimately, the NGOs are likely to decide that a weak new wording is on balance better than a defeat and get out enough of a vote to pass them. But you wouldn’t bet the house on them passing if you had a house. Expect to hear plenty on this subject in the coming weeks, as the Dáil debates the wording and the new Electoral Commission prepares its information campaign.
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