No votes are yet cast in the 2020 general election, but, with just over two weeks to go until polling day, a change of government is at this point the most likely outcome.
This judgment is not just based on the party numbers revealed by the Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll, which gave Fianna Fáil a narrow two-point lead over Fine Gael.
It also takes into account the accompanying findings published on Irishtimes.com about voters’ attitude to the prospect of a change of government, and to the issues which will most influence their vote.
These demonstrate, bluntly, that there is a strong mood for change among the electorate. Against that mood, any potential Fine Gael recovery faces an uphill struggle.
Look at the detail. The poll posits essentially three positions from which voters are asked to choose: no change of government, limited change and radical change. It offers what we can broadly call the Fine Gael option (the Government has made progress in some important areas and needs to get on with the job), the Fianna Fáil option (the Government has not made enough progress and it is time for a change), and the Sinn Féin/Green/Independent/radical option (it is time for a radical change).
People usually say they want change (though that is not always what they end up voting for) but, even so, the bias for a change here is pretty overwhelming. Between the two “change” options – change lite and radical change – some three-quarters of voters are supportive.
Open to change
In addition, a substantial majority of voters (55 per cent) say the country is “generally on the wrong track”, thus making them more likely to be open to change.
On the issues questions, more bad news for Fine Gael. The party’s strongest campaigning positions – on the economy and Brexit – are not considered remotely as important as the issues of housing and health when voters are asked what will decide their vote.
In fact, housing and health put all the other issues into the shade when voters are asked what will have the most influence on how they vote. (A further stark finding here is how few voters think climate change is important.)
Even Fine Gael voters think the economy and Brexit aren’t nearly as important as health and housing. This may be a problem of success for the party, but it is a problem nonetheless.
Is this election therefore basically over? Not by a long shot. Late moves in the campaign are to be expected; they always are. It would be folly to suggest that the findings of one poll mean Fine Gael cannot win the election. But the poll – along with observation of the first week of campaigning – does suggest that a comeback will be difficult.
Governments are almost always surprised when voters do not share their rosy view of their achievements
If it is to turn the campaign around, Fine Gael needs to change the conversation a lot of voters are having about this election, and about the state of the country. While there are very obvious failings in public services – especially health – and the housing shortage is affecting more people than ever before, the apocalyptic view of life in Ireland that has dominated some parts of the election debate might surprise outside observers.
Economic growth
This is, after all, a country that has enjoyed the strongest economic growth in Europe, unprecedented investment in public services and infrastructure, growing incomes and rising living standards. Of course, the governments of such countries lose elections all the time, often because their voters think they have "lost touch". This is undoubtedly a factor in the current political disposition. Governments are almost always surprised when voters do not share their rosy view of their achievements.
If Fine Gael is to stage a comeback, it needs above all to win an argument about the future. It needs to persuade people – who might be grumpy about the Government but want to protect its achievements on Brexit and the economy – that it can do better, and the alternative would likely do worse.
The longer campaigns go on, the more desire for change is tempered by the question: change to what?
It will try to this by arguing for its own plans and scaring voters about Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin. Many observers and participants have remarked that the Fine Gael campaign has been quite negative, dedicated as much to discrediting its opponents as it is to promoting its own policies and candidates. That is likely to continue, and to intensify.
Late swing
A lot of Fine Gaelers have placed their faith in a repeat of the 2007 election, when a late swing re-elected for a third term an unloved, but grudgingly respected Fianna Fáil government led by Bertie Ahern because the alternative was not trusted to manage the economy. Others look back further to John Major's win in the British general election in 1992, when something similar happened. And there is something there – the longer campaigns go on, the more desire for change is tempered by the question: change to what?
But that is a question about the alternative(s), not about the Government. After a difficult first week for Fine Gael, the focus will now begin to shift to an examination of the plans and credibility of putative alternative governments, and how they might be composed. It is only when voters form a view about the results of that examination that the outcome of this election will truly firm up.