Millions of voters in the UK head to the polls on Thursday in the closest general election in decades. It is expected to lead to days if not weeks of negotiations to form the next government.
Final opinion polls suggest the Conservatives and Labour are nearly tied, but there is evidence that many voters – more than normal – have yet to make their final choice, even though polls open at 7am.
Conservative leader David Cameron and Labour leader Ed Miliband both insist they can win a majority on their own, though not a single forecast has supported their claims.
The Democratic Unionist Party could play a central role in the days ahead, particularly if it ousts Alliance Party MP Naomi Long in East Belfast.
Declared winner
The Conservatives insist Mr Cameron will declare himself the victor if he leads Mr Miliband by a certain number of seats; a figure of 15 is being mentioned. Even then he may have no guarantee of being able to form a majority.
One survey, by the respected Election Forecast, predicts that the Conservatives will win 281 seats, Labour 266, the Scottish National Party 55, and the Liberal Democrats 26. The latter would be dramatic reduction on the 59 seats Nick Clegg’s party won in 2010.
If proved generally accurate, those numbers would be significant. They would deny both main parties a majority but at the same time deprive the Conservatives of nearly all of the coalition options available to get them over the line.
The House of Commons majority required is 326. The SNP says it will not do a deal of any kind with the Conservatives, though the party is offering so far unwanted support to Labour on a vote-by-vote basis.
Future negotiations
Parties spent yesterday campaigning, though some of the manoeuvring appeared to be as much about preparing for the negotiations to come as it was to persuade undecideds.
Insisting that an EU referendum will have to be held, Mr Cameron said that the UK could “sleepwalk” towards the exit if the public is not given the chance to vote on the issue.
Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats – the prime minister’s preferred choice for a coalition partner if he falls short of a majority – toughened its rhetoric.
Hinting that the party would demand a high price from the Conservatives for accepting a referendum, business secretary Vince Cable said a referendum is potentially damaging: “My party is strongly opposed to it and we will take a strong position on it should this issue arise in any negotiations.”
Meanwhile, DUP leader Peter Robinson kept the pressure on Labour should it need his support, saying that Mr Miliband had shown “no economic sense” by backing former Labour prime minister Gordon Brown’s handling of the economy.
The issue of the legitimacy of the next prime minister to hold office could become crucial, as the right-wing British press has already barracked Labour.
Backed by senior Conservatives, these newspapers warn that any Labour attempt to win power if it comes second behind the Conservatives would be illegitimate if it is done on the back of a deal with the SNP.
Assuming there is doubt about who might be able to form a government, Mr Cameron is entitled to try to put a Queen’s Speech – which sets out a government’s proposed legislative programme – to the Commons on May 27th. Mr Clegg has said he would talk first to the Conservatives if they have the most seats.
However, despite the increasingly fevered rhetoric coming from within the Conservative camp, Mr Cameron would face considerable pressure from influential figures not to go ahead with that if he faces defeat.
