Sir Ivan Rogers's sudden resignation as Britain's ambassador to the European Union has robbed Theresa May of her government's most experienced EU expert and exposed the chaotic and threadbare nature of her plans for Brexit.
In his extraordinary farewell message to colleagues, Rogers urged them to challenge “ill-founded arguments and muddled thinking” in government and never to be afraid to speak the truth to those in power.
He revealed that, three months before the prime minister triggers article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, her most senior officials don’t yet know what she is seeking from the negotiations.
“We do not yet know what the government will set as negotiating objectives for the UK’s relationship with the EU after exit,” he wrote.
This confirms what many in Brussels and in other European capitals have long feared: that the British government has not yet made up its mind about its approach to some of the key issues surrounding Brexit. These include its future relationship with the single market and the customs union, as well as the prospect of continuing to pay into the EU budget.
For many who opposed Brexit, Rogers’s departure is evidence that May is unwilling to listen to unwelcome home truths about what she can realistically expect from the other 27 EU member states. The ambassador fell from favour following last month’s leak of a memo in which he warned that negotiating and ratifying a post-Brexit trade deal with the EU could take a decade.
Brexiteers have been exultant, however, with the Daily Mail calling for Rogers to be succeeded by someone who believes "in the exciting opportunities of Brexit" and Nigel Farage suggesting that there should be a "complete clear-out" of the foreign office.
In recent weeks, senior figures in May's government, including chancellor Philip Hammond and Brexit secretary David Davis, have hinted at a shift towards a softer Brexit, with possible compromises on the single market, the customs union and even on immigration. But the response to Rogers's resignation from parts of the Conservative party and the pro-Brexit press serves as a warning that any deal short of the hardest Brexit will face fierce opposition from within the prime minister's own political constituency.