Nigel Farage's departure should offer Ukip an opportunity to reposition itself as a party that can deepen its appeal to disaffected Labour voters who backed Brexit in the north of England, while retaining the support of ultra-conservative voters in the south. This is a party, however, that until now has squandered every opportunity to become a serious political organisation and to build on electoral gains.
Few rising stars
The party’s only MP,
Douglas Carswell
, is not on speaking terms with the leadership and he has ruled himself out of the contest to succeed Farage. One of its other prominent figures, former deputy leader
Suzanne Evans
, is ineligible to stand because she is currently suspended for alleged disloyalty.
Although Ukip emerged from the 2014 European Parliament elections as the biggest party in Britain, it has done little to build a national party organisation since then. And Farage's determination to crush any potential rivals has ensured the party has few rising stars ready to succeed him.
Still, the electoral landscape has never been so promising for Ukip, as last month’s referendum exposed the depth of the estrangement between Labour and many of its traditional supporters. Almost half of Labour-held constituencies saw support for Leave above 60 per cent, mostly in the party’s working-class heartlands in the north of England.
Ukip came second in many of these constituencies at last year’s general election, and dozens of Labour seats could become vulnerable if the chaos in that party continues. Even if the stand-off between Labour’s MPs and its membership is resolved, the party will struggle to compete with Ukip among voters whose primary concern is immigration. Although some Labour MPs want to shift party policy towards a tougher line on immigration, too harsh an approach could alienate supporters in big cities, many of whom cherish diversity.
Right-wing populism
Ukip could also capture Eurosceptic Conservative voters if the next prime minister negotiates a Brexit deal with the EU which could be characterised as “backsliding”, particularly on the issue of free movement of people. Ukip’s prospects may depend on whether the EU referendum proves to be the high water mark of anti-establishment politics in Britain or the launchpad for a wave of right-wing populism.
Until now, Britain’s unusually unproportional first-past-the-post voting system has stalled the rise of Ukip. Farage’s departure could be what the party needs to push its vote beyond the point where the electoral system can contain it.