Two questions now dominate the Irish response to Brexit. The first is just how important Ireland, North and South, is to the British. The second is how important we are to the rest of Europe.
The answers to those questions will shape the post-Brexit landscape for Ireland.
The good news for the Government in Theresa May’s speech is that the maintenance of the Common Travel Area (CTA) between Ireland and the UK – from the outset outlined by Taoiseach Enda Kenny as one of the Government’s chief concerns – has been explicitly recognised by the prime minister as one of her priorities in the negotiations.
The less encouraging news is that it is one of 12 priorities for the UK as it goes into the Brexit negotiations with the European Union. So while it is clear that the CTA is important to the British, it is less clear exactly how important it is. The maintenance of the CTA was listed as priority number four – so is it more or less a priority than the other 11 priorities?
So is the CTA more or less important than “enhancing rights of workers”, for example. That’s priority number seven. Or than co-operation on crime, terrorism and foreign affairs? (Priority number 11.)
Bargaining process
May’s concept of the negotiations between the EU and the UK, to commence once the article 50 process is triggered in March, appears to be of a sort of bargaining process, which she says she is prepared to approach in an open spirit of finding an agreement that works for both sides.
In such a process, neither side gets 100 per cent of what it wants; that’s not how these things work. What matters under such circumstances is how important individual negotiating points are to each side. We know that the CTA is important to the British government, but we do not yet know how important.
This is relevant because May made it clear Britain would be leaving the single market, which wasn’t a surprise. It will also, on the basis of her speech, be leaving the EU’s customs union. Her goal of negotiating new trade deals with the wider world is not compatible with remaining in the customs union, in which the EU negotiates deals.
May spoke about the possibility of a new relationship with the customs union which would involve “tariff-free trade with Europe and cross-border trade there to be as frictionless as possible”.
That would certainly be what the Government would like to see, as it would mean there would be no need for a customs border on this island. But it might sound very much to the rest of the EU countries like having your cake and eating it. How will they respond to the British ask – and will they be prepared to carve out a special position for Ireland?
The Irish position for the last six months has been to hope Brexit would be as soft as possible. That hope had faded in recent months, and was finally buried yesterday. The focus will now switch to securing a special deal which takes account of the special position of the Ireland-UK relationship, most obviously – but not limited to – expressed in the North. It seems Ireland will have the support of the UK in that objective. How the rest of the EU responds is the big question.
