An elderly woman with an underlying health condition has become the first person in Britain to die of the coronavirus Covid-19 as 115 cases have been identified in the country.
Royal Berkshire NHS Trust said the patient, who had been "in and out of hospital for non-coronavirus reasons", was admitted on Wednesday night and diagnosed with the virus.
Chris Whitty, chief medical officer for England, told MPs on Thursday that it was highly likely that the virus was spreading in Britain, and the focus was shifting from containing it to delaying its spread.
He said it should peak in about two months, but the NHS would be under strain in the coming weeks.
“One of the things which is clear if you model out the epidemic is you will get 50 per cent of all the cases over a three-week period and 95 per cent of the cases over a nine-week period, if it follows the trajectory we think it’s likely to.
“If all of those were spaced out on the NHS over two or three years, that would be easily manageable, but it’s the fact they are so heavily concentrated,” he said.
“The bit of the system which will come under pressure first will be those conditions that require people to have oxygen and particularly to have critical care beds, and that bit, I think, will come under pressure at quite an early stage if we have a high-end-of-the-range epidemic for this.”
British hospitals have been trying to increase the number of intensive care beds, and final year medical students could be asked to cover for doctors. People who have tested positive for the virus but are showing only mild symptoms are being treated at home rather than in hospital.
Death rate
Prof Whitty said he was confident the death rate of the virus was no higher than 1 per cent, although Chinese data found that the death rate rose to 9 per cent among those over 80.
He said it was too early to isolate older people, but he suggested that they should avoid crowded places once it becomes widespread.
“One of the bits of advice that we will give is for people who are older or who have pre-existing health conditions to have some degree of isolation from more public environments.
“I think it is more likely we will make some advice for people who are older citizens and people with pre-existing health conditions to avoid crowded areas.”
He repeated the advice to wash hands regularly, and warned that the virus could be picked up from surfaces on public transport.
“There will be some risk of transmission and the risk peaks immediately after they’ve done it and then goes down over time. It’s probably largely gone by 48 hours, and almost completely gone by 72 hours on hard surfaces.
“Just touching it will not give you the virus – it is if you touch it and then touch your face having not washed your hands between.
“So if you go on to the Tube and touch the rail, that’s fine, but just be aware of what you do with your hands. Don’t touch your face, wash your hands, and then you can do what you like.”
