The longer chemical weapons inspectors wait in a Damascus luxury hotel for permission to drive up the road to the site of what appears to be the worst poison gas attack in a quarter century, the less likely they will be able to get to the bottom of it.
The poisoning deaths of many hundreds of people took place only three days after a team of UN chemical weapons experts arrived in Syria. But their limited mandate means the inspectors have so far been powerless to go to the scene, a short drive from where they are staying.
"We're being exterminated with poison gas while they drink their coffee and sit inside their hotels," said Bara Abdelrahman, an activist in one of the Damascus suburbs where rebels say government rockets brought the poison gas that killed hundreds of people before dawn on Wednesday.
The Syrian government denies it was behind the mass killing, the deadliest incident of any kind in Syria's two-and-a-half year civil war and the worst apparent chemical weapons attack anywhere since Saddam Hussein gassed thousands of Iraqi Kurds in 1988.
The UN has asked President Bashar al-Assad’s government for access to the scene, and Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said it should be investigated “without delay”.
Former weapons investigators say every hour matters.
"The longer it takes, the easier it is for anybody who has used it to try to cover up," said Demetrius Perricos, who headed the UN's team of weapons inspectors in Iraq in the 2000s.
“The more you cover up, the more time it takes afterwards to uncover it. So time is definitely not something that you want to take, you don’t want to do it slowly,” Perricos told Reuters.
Little doubt
Chemical weapons experts say there is little doubt that it was exposure to poison gas of some kind that killed the hundreds of victims, although exactly what chemicals were used could not be determined from just looking at images.
"Clearly, something has killed a lot of people," says Dan Kaszeta, a former US army chemical officer and Department of Homeland Security expert now a private consultant. "We're not going to know what until someone gets a sample."
Stephen Johnson, a former British army officer specialising in chemical, biological and nuclear warfare and now visiting fellow at Cranfield University's forensic unit, said it was also "staggeringly effective if it is a chemical attack, which implies more than a casual rocket or two".
Keeping UN inspectors from reaching the site would not stop western countries from obtaining their own evidence and drawing their own conclusions, as in previous cases when they determined Assad’s forces used smaller amounts of sarin gas.
In the past, France, Britain and the US obtained samples of soil and human tissue and other evidence they said proved Assad's government was to blame.
But unless the UN team obtains its own evidence, it could be difficult to build an international diplomatic case. Proving beyond reasonable doubt who was responsible might require evidence such as ballistic analysis that shows where any missiles came from.
The incident exposes the limits of the mandate of the UN team led by Swedish scientist Ake Sellstrom, details of which have not been fully made public.
Movements of the 20-member team are limited to locations previously agreed with Assad’s government. The team is authorised to investigate only three alleged incidents, at least one of which is a case in which the government says chemicals were used by rebels, and the other two of which have not been disclosed.
Western diplomats say they had hoped that once on the ground the team would be able to broaden its mandate.
"They probably have their hands tied as to where they can go because someone has territorial control," said Hans Blix, who headed a team of weapons inspectors in Iraq. "I can well imagine that objections will be raised on the ground that the security of inspectors cannot be protected in the area in question."
Rebels said on Wednesday they would provide protection for inspectors at the site.
Rolf Ekeus, a Swedish diplomat who worked with Sellstrom in Iraq, said Sellstrom had the expertise needed to determine what happened, if he were given access. "Sellstrom is extremely well familiar with all these capabilities, that is his speciality," Ekeus told Reuters.
France has led international calls for force to be used if it is proved that the government is behind the attack. Rebels and opposition activists say the diplomatic wrangling over the mandate of the inspectors provides cover for countries that lack the will to act.
Reuters