The recapture of Palmyra by the Syrian army, bolstered by Russian air power and Hizbullah ground forces, is a significant strategic, moral, psychological, political and public relations victory for Damascus over Islamic State.
By retaking Palmyra, the Syrian regular army becomes the principle anti-Islamic State force in the country, a role which had been assumed by the Kurdish protection units operating along Syria’s northern border with Turkey.
Palmyra is a strategic site midway on the highway from Damascus to Deir al-Zor. In order to retake Palmyra, the Syrian army has had to clear the route of Isis elements and take villages in the vicinity, securing not only inhabited areas but also vast stretches of desert.
Until the army moved into Palmyra, troops had made small advances against Isis and al-Qaeda’s Jabhat al-Nusra, seizing key supply routes and clearing out pockets of fighters around Damascus, Homs, Hama and Aleppo.
Besieged city
While based in Palmyra, the army is positioned to advance toward Deir al-Zor city, Syria’s oil hub where troops and 200,000 civilians are besieged and in dire need. If and when Deir al-Zor falls to the army, the main route to the Isis capital of Raqqa will be effectively cut off from Iraq, where Isis emerged in 2013.
While the Kurds have been putting pressure on Raqqa from the north, they are reluctant to mount an offensive on the city because it is in an Arab majority area. This leaves the task to the Syrian army.
For the army, recapturing Palmyra is a moral victory since troops had ignominiously pulled out of the modern city and ancient ruins in May 2015 after a column of Isis fighters swept down from Deir al-Zor. Routing Isis will boost the morale of the undermanned army which, until Russia intervened with air cover nearly six months ago, had been under severe challenge.
The generals and their men may now feel psychologically fit to lay siege to Raqqa in line with the Napoleonic dictum: in battle the spiritual is to the material as three to one.
Damascus has been politically strengthened at a time when it is under strong pressure to make concessions in the Syrian talks set to resume in Geneva around April 9th. The government can be expected to argue it is not the moment to change its armed forces commander-in-chief, President Bashar al-Assad – the primary demand of the Saudi-sponsored opposition and some western and Arab members of the Syria support group.
The Palmyra victory is a public relations coup for the government. By retaking Palmyra, the army has prevented Isis from wreaking fresh destruction on the ruins of the Graeco-Roman commercial hub where Isis has blown up 2,000-year-old temples and other monuments in its campaign to erase the remnants of Mesopotamian and Islamic civilisations.
Damascus has pledged to restore the monuments to their former glory.