Iran’s presidential election may be the most important since the founding of the Islamic republic as it could herald an end to more than 40 years of the two-tier regime. This regime has given ultimate authority to a clerical superstructure which was imposed on elected presidents, legislators and officials who run the government.
The landslide victory of former ultra-conservative chief justice Ebrahim Raisi, protege of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has tied the post of the elected head of the republic to the position of appointed supreme leader. Raisi also has the backing of the legislature and the Revolutionary Guard.
Once he is inaugurated in August, all levers of power in Iran will not only be in the hands of the clerical regime but also held by appointed and elected loyalist conservatives. Dissident conservatives and moderates answerable to the people will be out of the loop. This is unprecedented in the brief history of the Islamic republic and could transform Iran.
During the campaign, Raisi declared his intention by calling for a “fundamental change in the executive management of the country”.
Dictatorship
The clerical regime now has the power to install a fully-fledged theocratic dictatorship and forget about popular endorsement in tightly controlled elections. The regime is not concerned that a majority of Iranians did not vote in this election, depriving it of legitimacy.
In all of Iran's elections, the appointed Guardian Council, which vets candidates, has disqualified hundreds of men and scores of women from running for office. Nevertheless, earlier presidential elections have been won by moderates Hashemi Rafsanjani, Mohammad Khatami, and incumbent Hassan Rouhani.
Before Raisi, conservatives Ali Khamenei and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad also triumphed. The moderates and maverick Ahmadinejad challenged the supreme leader and the regime, providing checks on their power.
Iran experts argue that Khamenei (82) has backed Raisi as a potential successor in exchange for a pledge to respect and protect the ayatollah’s family when he has departed the scene. Once out of office, senior officials critical of the regime have been muzzled and put under house arrest and their families sidelined.
Nuclear programme
Raisi will also continue policies set by Khamenei, especially negotiations for the return of the US and Iran to the 2015 deal limiting Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for lifting sanctions which have crippled Iran’s economy and impoverished its people. Without such relief, Iran cannot recover from decades of sanctions.
Raisi has said he will pursue good relations with all countries, excluding Israel. He will carry on reconciliation talks with the Emirates and Saudi Arabia and boost ties with China and Russia.
He is, however, unlikely to pay the US price for reconciliation by making concessions over Iran's development of ballistic missiles and advanced weaponry for self-defence or end support for Iran's allies in Iraq, Syria and Yemen.