With the November 24th deadline looming for the expiry of an interim agreement on Iran's nuclear programme, the prospects for a comprehensive deal remain most uncertain. The discussions between Iran and the so-called P+1 – the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany – have already been extended once and observers warn a further couple of months may yet be required.
But a couple of recent straws in the wind are worth noting. Most significantly, the New York Times reports that Tehran has done a deal with Russia under which, in the event of agreement with the P+1 of which it is part, Moscow would agree to take much of Iran's huge stockpile of uranium – 28,000 pounds, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency – to reprocess it as fuel rods for Iran's commercial reactor at Bushehr. Such rods could not be used for military purposes.
A deal with Moscow along these lines would significantly extend Iran’s “breakout time”, the time it is believed it would take to produce one weapon’s worth of highly enriched uranium, and which is key to the talks. If done, negotiators suggest, it may be easier for the P+1, and particularly the US, now to compromise on how many centrifuges (used to purify uranium for potential military use) the Iranians could be allowed to retain.
Hopes that agreement could be reached rose with the election of reforming Hassan Rouhani as president in June 2013, although Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who retains ultimate control and could derail any deal done by the president, worryingly recently raised the negotiating bar significantly.
But any agreement would also, until recently, have had to pass muster with a sceptical US Congress to have sanctions on Iran raised. The White House now suggests that it has received legal advice that would allow the president himself to raise sanctions, ensuring that any deal with Tehran could be matched by a quid pro quo. We may be edging towards a deal.