The brutal murder by Islamic State (IS) of Jordanian pilot Muath al-Kaseasbeh has shocked and stunned Jordan which was, until yesterday, of two minds about the kingdom's participation in the US-led coalition conducting air raids against IS in Syria and Iraq.
Flight Lt Kaseasbeh (26) comes from a military family from a loyalist tribe and the loyalist city of Kerak. His uncle is a retired major general. Tribesmen have formed the backbone of the Hashemite monarchy since Jordan’s establisment by Britain following the first World War.
For weeks the pilot's family and clan have been lobbying the government and the military to secure Kaseasbeh's release and have mobilised hundreds of supporters in this cause. His outspoken father, Safi Kaseasbeh, has been sharply critical of the government and condemned its participation in the US-led coalition.
Kaseasbeh followed the traditional route of a young Jordanian opting for a military career. He graduated from King Hussein Air College and joined the Royal Jordanian Air Force, the elite service in the Jordanian armed forces which favours recruits from the tribes. He qualified as an F-16 pilot in 2012. In a widely circulated interview in the IS propaganda magazine he described his capture by IS and said he expected to be killed.
Jordan has assumed a steady, though low-profile role in the western- and Arab-sponsored rebellion against Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. US advisers have trained vetted rebels on Jordanian territory and provided them with arms.
However, Jordan has also been a victim of this conflict. It has received more than a million Syrian refugees, some 637,000 registered with the UN, and a number of Jordanian soldiers have been killed in skirmishes with rebels fleeing Syria or seeking to cross the border into Syria.
Hundreds of Jordanians have joined the ranks of mainly fundamentalist factions fighting in Syria and scores have been detained on their return to the kingdom. Jordan can be expected to crack down on IS sympathisers, recruiters, recruits, and returnees.
The Muslim Brotherhood, an influential political grouping in Jordan, has stood against the kingdom's participation in the coalition, particularly since it is led by the US. The Brotherhood has backed some fundamentalist factions fighting the Assad regime. A number of these factions have allied with IS and al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra.
Ultra-orthhodox Salafi ideologues have whipped up angry young Jordanians, unemployed and marginalised, to take to the streets in support of IS and its mission to re-establish an Islamic “caliphate” which would provide decent livelihoods for all Muslims prepared to live under IS rule.
Since the Brotherhood and the Salafis have put themselves on a collision course with the government on this issue, it is likely that the authorities will boost surveillance and suppress protests over Jordan’s continuing participation in aerial missions as long as Jordan is not asked to provide boots-on-the-ground.
Jordan cannot afford to deploy troops in either Syria or Iraq because it is a front-line state at risk of both external attack and internal subversion.