It's an ill wind that blows no good, and, indeed, the dramatic surrender of Iraq's second city Mosul and others to murderous Sunni insurgents of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (Isis) has contributed, it appears, to a welcome, somewhat unexpected rapprochement between Iran and the US. There's even talk, previously inconceivable, of joint military action against Isis in Iraq. But even though such talk by US Secretary of State John Kerry was just theoretical speculation, and quickly denied by the White House and Defence Department, it is a measure of the extent to which a paradigm shift in regional relationships may be under way.
That should not be exaggerated. After all, the US and Iran remain implacably opposed over Israel and Syria, where, ironically, Washington could be said to be backing the Isis side – supplying weapons and aid to its ostensible allies – while Iran continues to back President Bashir al Assad. The US was deeply opposed even to Iran’s involvement in the international peace talks with Damascus.
But the two states' mutual interest in defending the integrity of Iraq, effectively an American post-invasion construct, and now almost an Iranian client state, is making curious bedfellows of them. The relationship began to warm with the election of reformist President Hassan Rouhani and the subsequent engagement of Tehran in talks with the international community – led by the EU's Cathy Ashton – on its nuclear programme. These are reported to be progressing positively, and success there could see a flourishing of renewed diplomatic exchanges, including the opening of an EU embassy in Tehran. In the past two days the UK has also said it will reopen its embassy.
The potential talks with Tehran have echoes of the period just after the 9/11 attacks when Iran provided assistance to the US in the initial battle in Afghanistan against another common enemy, the Taliban. But even if the US-Iranian dialogue does not reach agreement on common or even complementary military action – President Obama has hinted at US air raids supporting Iraqi ground troops – a tacit understanding may be reached that the US would at least not complain about irregular Iranian military assistance to Iraq.
More productive, however, may be exploring a common political approach to Iraq’s dysfunctional, sectarian administration, notably an agreement to seek the replacement of Maliki. The latter was backed by both countries when elected in 2006, but his resolute refusal to embrace cross-community politics by bringing Sunnis into government has contributed enormously to the support for the Sunni insurgency and to the gradual alienation of his two backers, most recently Iran. A new Iraqi leadership is vital to bridge that gulf. First fruit of a new Tehran-Washington dispensation?