When German chancellor Angela Merkel visits Kiev today, she could be forgiven for imagining she hears an ominous rumbling in the distance. Her talks with Ukraine's leaders will begin a crucial week of negotiations aimed at ending the country's bloody crisis, but it will now start not only with guns booming in the east, but a huge convoy of Russian military trucks rolling through disputed territory.
By sending his aid convoy into Ukraine yesterday without its permission or the co-operation of the Red Cross, Russian president Vladimir Putin sent a message of defiance to Kiev and its western allies.
He showed he is determined to regain the initiative in Ukraine, despite recent setbacks suffered by Moscow-backed rebels who want eastern regions to join Russia, and the impact of his country's growing economic and diplomatic isolation.
The convoy of almost 300 trucks – many of which are almost empty – adds another unpredictable element to a volatile conflict that has killed more than 2,000 people and displaced hundreds of thousands. The first trucks arrived last night in Luhansk, a city that has been without power, running water and telephone connections for almost a fortnight, and an island of rebel resistance to the rapid recent advance of Ukrainian troops.
The separatist strongholds of Luhansk and Donetsk are now almost surrounded by government forces, raising hopes among Ukrainian military men that the insurgency could be crushed before tomorrow’s Independence Day celebrations.
Kiev believes the aid convoy is Moscow’s way of slowing or halting the crackdown on the rebels, and could be used to provide a pretext for a full Russian invasion if it came under attack, either real or staged.
It is not clear how long the trucks will stay in Ukraine, or even where they will attempt to go, with Russia potentially seeking to send them from Luhansk to Donetsk, through areas of fierce fighting. The convoy is Putin’s wildcard, and the fact he has played it now suggests Ukraine’s crisis is at a vital juncture.
Empire
After annexing Crimea in March, Putin declared himself ready to defend Russians everywhere, and referred covetously to swathes of eastern and southern Ukraine as “Novorossiya” – as they were called when part of Russia’s tsarist empire. Such talk fanned nationalist flames at home and stoked the hopes of Donetsk and Luhansk separatists that they would soon be rescued by Russia – militarily if necessary – from the Russian-hating “fascists” allegedly now running Ukraine.
But the Russian expansionists’ dream of Novorossiya failed to take hold in Kharkiv, Odessa, Kherson and other key Ukrainian regions, and the Kremlin was further shaken by western sanctions and Ukrainian military successes, achieved despite Russia’s provision of fighters and heavy weapons to the rebels.
Now a stark choice has come into focus for Putin: allow Ukraine to crush the militants, lose face and risk a nationalist backlash at home; or give the militants more help – including open use of Russian forces – and accept more sanctions and isolation.
Ukraine and the West hoped the prospect of Merkel’s visit would stay Putin’s hand; that he would not want to discomfit the leader of Europe’s strongest country – and one of Russia’s closest EU allies – while she was in Kiev. By sending in the military trucks now, in flagrant disregard of Ukraine’s wishes, Putin has in fact placed Merkel in an excruciating position.
Ceasefire
Analysts and diplomats said she was coming to Kiev with a message of broad support for its leaders, but also to call for a ceasefire in the east as a first step towards a deal that would pacify the region and allow Putin to save face.
Now she will arrive with Ukraine baying for even tougher action against Moscow, and her hosts demanding a strong EU response to Russia's latest escalation of the crisis; it will be hard to argue the Kremlin's corner in such an atmosphere.
Putin seems to be testing Merkel’s mettle, knowing few EU capitals have an appetite for a prolonged dispute with Russia over Ukraine, and that most would like to drop sanctions and return to “business as usual” as quickly as possible.
Driving Merkel into a corner could be seen as an act of desperation on Mr Putin’s part, and many western diplomats fear he will act unpredictably and aggressively if faced with the prospect of defeat and embarrassment over Ukraine.
After meeting Merkel today, Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko is due to hold talks with Putin and top EU officials in Belarus on Tuesday, and then to visit Brussels a week today.
A bullish Poroshenko scents victory in the east, while Mr Putin fears a painful reverse; if there was any common ground between Kiev and Moscow, the Kremlin’s trucks have just turned it into a quagmire.
