Hours after Recep Tayyip Erdogan was elected to the Turkish presidency, the man he is to succeed, Abdullah Gul, announced he was returning to the ranks of the ruling AK party, signalling the start of a scramble for power.
The move by the outgoing president came as the party’s top decision-making body met to decide a timetable for choosing the replacement for Mr Erdogan, who has served as party leader and prime minister for more than a decade.
Mr Gul’s bid to return to frontline politics is just one of the challenges facing Mr Erdogan, as he seeks to bolster his power after winning about 52 per cent of the vote in Sunday’s historic election.
“This is not a perfect victory,” said Kadri Gursel, a prominent Turkish columnist. “This could be where [Mr Erdogan’s] problems are starting.”
With Mr Erdogan seeking to rule the country from the presidency – traditionally a largely ceremonial post – the choice of the next AK leader will affect not just government policy. It could decide the direction of the entire country, depending on how willing the leader is to stand up to Mr Erdogan, who has been increasingly criticised for his authoritarianism in recent years.
“I was a founder of this party, its first prime minister and president. There is nothing more natural than returning to the party,” said Mr Gul, who has increasingly emphasised his differences with Mr Erdogan over issues such as the rule of law and the independence of institutions. “My political struggle is clear . . . I am looking to the future.”
The Borsa Istanbul stock exchange and the lira, which slid earlier yesterday on fears of political uncertainty, rallied after the statement by Mr Gul, widely seen as a more emollient and pro-EU figure than Mr Erdogan.
But within an hour of Mr Gul’s announcement, the AK board announced that a party Congress would choose its next leader and prime minister on August 27th, a day before he steps down as president.
Timing
Since the Turkish constitution bans a serving president from party political links, the timing would prevent Mr Gul from standing for the leadership. Mr Erdogan plans to remain premier until August 28th.
Amid suggestions Mr Gul would be too independent a figure for Mr Erdogan’s liking to be prime minister, alternative possible candidates include Ahmet Davutoglu, the foreign minister, who has emphasised the importance of a “harmonious” relationship between premier and president, and Binali Yildirim, a former transport minister. Having failed to date to secure the constitutional changes to establish a formal presidential system, Mr Erdogan is looking for a pliant prime minister content to cede power to him.
But if any such arrangements are to be lasting – and if Mr Erdogan is to have any chance of amending the constitution to boost presidential powers – the AK party must win parliamentary elections, which are due to be held not later than June next year.
The problem facing him and the party is that those two priorities – a compliant prime minister and a proven vote-winner – may not be easily compatible.
Some commentators had suggested Mr Erdogan’s vote tally on Sunday, which was less than predicted in some polls, might push the party to look for an established vote-getter. Mr Gul regularly appears in polls as one of the country’s two most popular politicians, together with Mr Erdogan.
Yet the strains between the two have become more clear in recent years.
Even as he cast his vote on Sunday, Mr Gul alluded to his discomfort with Turkey’s recent direction, calling on the country to “return to its real agenda . . . through strengthening itself in the areas of democracy and state of law, and consolidating its economy”.
Victory speech
In turn, Mr Erdogan did not even mention Mr Gul in his victory speech. He has previously called on the outgoing president to remain on the sidelines for the next 10 months. But not all his party has been convinced. Bulent Arinc, AK’s third most senior figure, has repeatedly suggested that Mr Gul take up the mantle of the leadership.
Economic management is another big unknown for the next government, as Ali Babacan, the deputy prime minister responsible for the economy and a figure close to Mr Gul, is leaving parliament at the next election.
“One of the big questions is what is going to happen with Babacan, whose top aides have already left the government,” said Hakan Akbas at Albright Stonebridge, a political consultancy. “The government needs someone with the background, experience and confidence to talk to capital markets given increased geopolitical risks around Turkey, rising inflation, slowing growth and exports, and tightening by the US Federal Reserve.” – (Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2014)