Spain's acting prime minister Mariano Rajoy is expected to fail in his bid to form a new government on Friday, extending an eight-month political stalemate and increasing the likelihood of a third general election in the space of a year.
Mr Rajoy narrowly lost a first investiture vote on Wednesday. Requiring an absolute majority in the 350-seat congress, he fell six votes short, after his conservative Popular Party (PP) received only the backing of the liberal Ciudadanos and the small Canaries Coalition.
On Friday, he only needs more votes in favour than against, meaning an abstention by the Socialist Party would be enough for him to govern. But with the Socialists vowing to oppose Mr Rajoy again, the deadlock is almost certain to continue.
“Don’t stand in the way and don’t force us to have a third election,” Mr Rajoy told Socialist leader Pedro Sánchez ahead of Wednesday’s vote. “I’m just asking you to abstain, not to share anything with us.”
Mr Sánchez fears that abstaining would anger traditional Socialist voters who staunchly oppose allowing the corruption-plagued PP to govern for another four years.
“The Socialist Party will not abstain on corruption and the cutting back of rights,” he told Mr Rajoy. “You can’t be trusted.”
With such antipathy between the two main parties, another election is looking increasingly likely and the vote will be called if a new government is not formed by the end of October.
The Socialists have already floated the possibility of a reform that would shorten the campaign and prevent election-weary Spaniards from having to vote on Christmas Day, as currently appears likely.
If a new election were held, many analysts expect the two relatively new forces which have blown open the political landscape, Ciudadanos and the leftist Unidos Podemos, to suffer losses.
Having won the December election and then its June re-run, Mr Rajoy remains the most likely candidate to form a new administration, despite his political isolation.
There is speculation that he will try again after a September 25th Basque regional election – the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) might need the support of Mr Rajoy’s PP to govern in the regional parliament, meaning he could persuade it to back him in the national congress with its five seats, leaving him just one vote short.
However, relations between the PNV and Rajoy’s current partner, Ciudadanos, are strained over the Basque sovereignty issue, making such an accord difficult.
Meanwhile, Unidos Podemos has called on Mr Sánchez to join it in forming a coalition government, but that plan looks unrealistic, as it would require exhaustive negotiations in order to enlist regional nationalist parties, whose backing would also be needed. Pressure is therefore building on the Socialists to allow Mr Rajoy to govern, with Mr Sánchez’s own position as party leader appearing increasingly uncertain.
El País newspaper urged Mr Sánchez to drop his resistance to a Rajoy government as soon as possible. "Without a [leftist] alternative, there only remains the absurd possibility of a third election," it said, warning that "voters' annoyance is mounting in the face of parties who resolve nothing".
