It is truly depressing to consider that 20 years after the signing of the Belfast Agreement we are once more looking at a breakdown in a tortuous set of negotiations aimed at restoring the powersharing institutions in Northern Ireland. It remains to be seen whether they can be put back on track.
To put that in some sort of context, it is worth recalling that by 1941, 20 years after the Anglo-Irish Treaty, independent Ireland was a functioning democracy in a world engulfed by war and dictatorship.
The politicians of the new Irish state had to deal with the legacy of a civil war, economic austerity (which put our more recent experience of that particular trauma into the shade) and bitter party-political rivalry which had the capacity to undermine the democratic institutions established by the treaty.
Despite the overwhelming challenges, Irish democracy put down firm roots in the first two decades of independence which have stood it in good stead ever since. We have been wont to take that for granted but a new book Party Politics in a New Democracy by historian Mel Farrell details just what a remarkable achievement it was.
Independent Ireland was one of the few new states created across Europe in the aftermath of the first World War that survived as a democracy. Most of the others lurched into dictatorships of the left or right and were finally engulfed by the Nazis and then in many cases by the Soviets.
Disaster and dictatorship
Farrell gives credit to both of the political parties that emerged from the Civil War for the achievement. First, Cumann na nGaedheal put the finances of the State on a sound footing and resisted the temptation, to which most other new democracies succumbed, to court popularity with policies which inevitably resulted in hyper-inflation, economic disaster and ultimately dictatorship.
Following the change of government after 1932, Éamon de Valera continued to adhere to democratic norms and while he gradually dismantled key provisions of the treaty and introduced a new Constitution, the institutions of the State remained inviolate.
The peaceful handover of power by the winners of the Civil War to the losers distinguished the Irish State from so many others, then and in more recent times where democratic elections have so often followed the maxim “one man, one vote, one time”.
We take the survival of our democracy for granted but history shows that no people have an automatic right to a healthy democracy. It requires politicians of skill as well as principle, and political parties that have a concept of the common good as well as their own self-interest.
We take the survival of our democracy for granted but history shows that no people have an automatic right to a healthy democracy
These things are by no means a given in any society. The failure of the Arab Spring to deliver democracy across the Islamic world or the corruption of democratic standards in Zimbabwe and Venezuela may seem distant problems to us but there are worrying examples of drift closer to home.
As American conservative writer David Frum wrote in his book on Trump's America "Democracy is a work in progress. So is democracy's undoing." He pointed to how the Republican Party leadership who, despite Trump, rowed into line behind him once he won the presidency.
Populists claim to challenge the existing order on behalf of the ordinary people and then, as they get traction, go a step further and insist that only they truly represent the people against the so-called elites. The next step is to begin dismantling the institutions that prevent the will of the people from being exercised.
Demonised opponents
In a divided society like Northern Ireland, parties like Sinn Féin and the Democratic Unionist Party have followed some of the key elements of the populist playbook in terms of demonising their opponents and portraying themselves as the only authentic voice of their respective tribes.
The question facing them is whether they both have more to gain by working together or by continuing their mutually reinforcing language of conflict. The next few days will tell a tale on that front.
In the Republic, Sinn Féin has a more direct challenge. In tandem with the accession of Mary Lou McDonald to the leadership after 35 years of Gerry Adams, the party is making no bones about its ambition to get into government after the next election.
The question facing potential coalition partners, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, is whether a deal with Sinn Féin would represent a normalisation of politics or the entry of an anti-democratic Trojan horse into the heart of government.
The question facing potential coalition partners, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, is whether a deal with Sinn Féin would represent a normalisation of politics or the entry of an anti-democratic Trojan horse into the heart of government
Conventional wisdom is that, once in government, populist parties like Sinn Féin are inevitably sucked into the trade-offs and compromises that face traditional parties of power.
However, there is nothing inevitable about this and history shows it is more than possible the opposite will happen. Given the way Sinn Féin has ruthlessly despatched the SDLP, there is every reason for potential coalition partners to fear being devoured.
Potential partners would do well to ponder why McDonald felt it necessary to conclude her first speech as party leader by proclaiming "Tiocfaidh ár lá". This was the slogan made famous around the world by Patrick Magee after his conviction in 1986 for the Brighton bombing, designed to kill British prime minister Margaret Thatcher.