As the Syrian conflict continues to rage, the prospect of a renewed exodus of citizens to Europe seems all but inevitable.
The deteriorating situation in the Aleppo region of northern Syria, fuelled by Russian air strikes, has forced thousands of people to flee northwards to the Turkish border. Nearly 4,000km away, officials in Brussels are struggling to get a grip on a crisis that shows no sign of abating.
The expectation that the numbers crossing into Europe would fall during winter failed to materialise. While there was a small drop in November and December, refugees are continuing to arrive, with an estimated 70,000 arriving in Greece in January.
The EU’s response to the migration crisis to date has been woefully inadequate.
A controversial relocation plan agreed last autumn has failed miserably. Less than 500 people of the 160,000 targeted have been relocated under the quota scheme.
Similarly, the European Commission's flagship "hotspot" scheme is struggling. The notion of dedicated registration centres in Italy and Greece staffed by EU and local officials has been beset by logistical and local opposition.
One hotspot
Despite the commission reassigning EU staff from Brussels to Greece and Italy to set up the centres, only one of the five hotspots designated for the Greek islands has been established.
Even as the hotspot in Lesbos is up and running, protesters on the island of Kos are stopping the construction of the centre there.
Faced with the failure of some of its key policy responses to the migration crisis, the European Union has been forced to shift direction.
Over the past few months, the open-doors policy espoused by German chancellor Angela Merkel in the initial phase of the crisis has given way to a more hardline approach, focused on ensuring that only those genuinely entitled to asylum are admitted.
The move last autumn to clamp down on migrants from so-called "safe countries" in the Balkan region, such as Albania, Bosnia and Kosovo, has now been widened to include migrants from Afghanistan, Iran and north Africa, who are not entitled to asylum.
Within the European Commission there is growing frustration at the number of Moroccan nationals who are attempting to enter the EU through the Turkish-Greek route, in particular.
Officials are looking at ways of ensuring that those arriving in Europe with no genuine claim to asylum – particularly from Africa – will be readmitted to their countries of origin. This will primarily involve the implementation of readmission agreements, though it could see the EU threatening to withhold aid to developing countries.
Engagement with Turkey is also a central plank of the EU's response as a fresh wave of refugees amasses at the Turkish-Syrian border. While EU member states agreed on their national contributions to the Turkey plan last week, EU officials say there will be no disbursement of funds if the numbers arriving from Turkey are not reduced.
While the number of people traffickers arrested by Turkish authorities has increased, there is frustration that Turkey is admitting third-country nationals who then travel on to Greece with no legal right to asylum.
As well as engagement with non-EU countries, much of EU’s focus remains on Greece, still the main gateway for refugees entering the European Union.
EU member states have upped the pressure on Greece in recent weeks amid mounting frustration at Athen’s perceived reluctance to accept EU help and improve its screening systems – a charge denied by the Greek authorities.
The prospect of sealing the border with Macedonia, effectively trapping thousands of refugees in Greece, has been mooted, along with the suspension of Greece from the Schengen Area.
Greece warned
Yesterday, as part of a package of measures unveiled by the European Commission ahead of next week’s EU summit, Greece was again warned that it had months to improve its registration processes.
The European Union once again faces serious credibility questions about its management of the migration issue.
In an indication of the seriousness of the crisis, a proposal that Nato troops should be deployed to help with the migration inflows has gathered support this week.
But as the EU struggles with the short-term challenge of transforming the current chaotic flow of refugees into a more orderly asylum process, more long-term questions remain.
The question of how to successfully integrate the million-plus refugees who entered the EU last year has failed to gain sufficient consideration.
Turkey’s plan to offer work permits to Syrian refugees is a step in the right direction. Still, the EU needs to ask itself some serious questions about how it plans to smooth the path towards social integration for migrants.